E-minis continue trend lower as bears dominate

Brooks Price Action - 05-17-2012 Thursday

pending chart 1370

Trending trading range day, late sell vacuum, bear breakout down to bottom of daily channel and near 1300 magnet

  • Thursday, May 17, 2012
  • Bar 1 - Yesterday = bear channel and part of large bear wedge, so odds favor up soon with maybe 1/3 chance of bear breakout with follow through. No bottom yet
  • Bar 2 - Breakout below low of yesterday, more down
  • Bar 3 - Bull reversal bar but tail so not strong buy. Breakout pullback short but doji
  • Bar 6 - Two bar revresal but report. Ok to buy above but speed important so better to wait
  • Bar 7 - Huge bear bar and 120k contracts. Big tail so bad for bear breakout below bear wedge and might be sell climax low of the day
  • Bar 8 - Strong bull inside bar but too big so now 4 bar tight trading range and might go sideways. Ok buy above but might go sideways. Fail, failure breakout below bear channel so maybe 70% chance of test of top of channel today.
  • Bar 11 - Weak bull breakout and follow through. Tails and at moving average. Probably buyers below and then trading range. Ok to exit longs, not strong short for double top 3.
  • Bar 12 - Strong bear bar but odds favor sideways and poke above top of channel after fail, failure breakout below
  • Bar 15 - Two legged pullback in a bear move at moving average, bear bar, double top bear flag. Ok swing short but probably still always in long and sideways more likely. Tight trading range, tails so bad for stop entries. Better to wait
  • Bar 18 - Bear inside bar but barb wire. Wait
  • Bar 19 - Fail, failure two legged pullback in a bear move but barb wire so bad for stop entries. Probably always in long but bears see as bear channel and on two legged pullback in a bear move 15. Odds still favor test of trendline above but wait for strong signal up or down, or for strong breakout
  • [more Bar-by-Bar Analysis in the Forums at www.brookspriceaction.com]
About the Author
Al Brooks

Al Brooks, M.D., is author of the Brooks Trading Course (27 hours of videos at BrooksTradingCourse.com), several books on Price action (Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar: The Technical Analysis of Price Action for the Serious Trader, Wiley, 2009, and the 500,000 word, three-book series, Trading Price Action, Wiley, 2012), and numerous articles in Futures Magazine. He also provides live intraday E-mini price action analysis and free end-of-day analysis on www.brookspriceaction.com.

Originally published on BPA Forums. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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