Gold bottom may be forming, bounce to $1,604 possible

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 05/17/12

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66 – 108.44.
  • New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 109.10. Downside Target over 175% achieved.
  • July Brent Crude broke through the recent lows and closed below $110 for the first time since late January.
  • As Brent approaches the Intermediate Term downside target @ 108.44, buyers should return to the market down to 107.38 where there is a gap to be filled from the 2011 yearly close.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.04
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.17
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.41

CLM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44 – 93.98 – 89.97.
  • New lows made on current move Monday @ 91.81. Downside Target over 250% achieved.
  • June WTI Crude broke to new 2012 lows on Wednesday as it broke through the December lows before finding support above the Q3 2011 consolidation high @ 90.52.
  • To reiterate our projections, WTI should break through $90 down to 89.97 before confirming an Intermediate Term bottom and retesting the $100 threshold.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.33
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.12
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.25

NGM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/16/12 @ 2.532. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.756 – 2.861
  • TREND REVESAL to bullish @ 2.532. Upside Target = 2.756.
  • June Nat Gas exploded higher on Wednesday as the market proved us wrong and fulfilled an 11% chance of trading through 2.607 before confirmation a Short Term top in the market.
  • Natural Gas may continue on higher towards our Q2 Upside Target of 2.861.
  • Projected Daily Range: .131
  • Projected Weekly Range: .240
  • Projected Monthly Range: .460

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