KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66 – 108.44.
- New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 109.10. Downside Target over 175% achieved.
- July Brent Crude broke through the recent lows and closed below $110 for the first time since late January.
- As Brent approaches the Intermediate Term downside target @ 108.44, buyers should return to the market down to 107.38 where there is a gap to be filled from the 2011 yearly close.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.04
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.17
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.41
CLM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44 – 93.98 – 89.97.
- New lows made on current move Monday @ 91.81. Downside Target over 250% achieved.
- June WTI Crude broke to new 2012 lows on Wednesday as it broke through the December lows before finding support above the Q3 2011 consolidation high @ 90.52.
- To reiterate our projections, WTI should break through $90 down to 89.97 before confirming an Intermediate Term bottom and retesting the $100 threshold.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.33
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.12
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.25
NGM12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 05/16/12 @ 2.532. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.756 – 2.861
- TREND REVESAL to bullish @ 2.532. Upside Target = 2.756.
- June Nat Gas exploded higher on Wednesday as the market proved us wrong and fulfilled an 11% chance of trading through 2.607 before confirmation a Short Term top in the market.
- Natural Gas may continue on higher towards our Q2 Upside Target of 2.861.
- Projected Daily Range: .131
- Projected Weekly Range: .240
- Projected Monthly Range: .460
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1645.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1634.80. Downside Targets 1599.10 – 1528.10.
- New lows made on current move @ 1526.70. Downside Target over 225% achieved.
- June Gold broke lower again on Wednesday and traded a mere $1.40 through the Intermediate Term downside objective of $1,528.10 before rallying most of the day.
- Gold is making a very strong bottoming formation right now and while there may be a little more pressure in this market, a sharp bounce back to $1,604.40 may appear in short order.
- Projected Daily Range: 26.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 57.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 92.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2935 – 1.2805 – 1.2623.
- New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 1.2683. Downside Target over 175% achieved.
- The June Euro FX continued its fall on Wednesday but limited its losses and closed just above the day’s mid-range for the first time in over a week.
- Like the Yen, although more severely oversold, the Euro should put in a slight rally on Thursday before turning back lower towards the Intermediate Term extended downside target of 1.2623.
- Projected Daily Range: .0103
- Projected Weekly Range: .0201
- Projected Monthly Range: .0429
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1389.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1386.00. Downside Target = 1368.25 – 1345.00 – 1318.50.
- New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 1320.75. Downside Target 200% achieved.
- The June S&P’s closed just inside the daily Support Bollinger Band on Wednesday as it made new 15 week lows as it enters an area of strong support.
- The market should technically be another 50 points lower than what it is but talks of more QE and US stocks seemingly more attractive than foreign investment seems to be keeping the market propped above 1300.
- One important note will be the Facebook IPO scheduled for Friday, if it does not perform very well, the market may see another leg down as the most valuable IPO ever should set the tone for the rest of the year for new companies coming to market.
- Projected Daily Range: 19.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
