Euro could challenge 2010 lows; S&P to retrace 2011 close

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 05/16/12

METALS

GCM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1645.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1634.80. Downside Targets 1599.10 – 1528.10.
  • New lows made on current move @ 1555.00. Downside Target over 190% achieved.
  • June Gold fell again on Tuesday to its lowest level since late December as its entire day’s trading range was well below the daily Support Bollinger Band.
  • As we mentioned in our report last week, Gold achieved the 100% probability of trading the 2011 close @ 1566.80 on Monday and shows no signs of slowing on the way to our Q2 objective of 1517.10.
  • Projected Daily Range: 25.70
  • Projected Weekly Range: 57.70
  • Projected Monthly Range: 92.10

CURRENCIES

ECM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2935 – 1.2805 – 1.2623.
  • Bearish ERVB (Extended Range Vertical Bar) generated on Tuesday making new lows on current move @ 1.2723. Downside Target over 160% achieved.
  • The June Euro FX broke sharply lower as Greece has now called for a new government and raised fears that the country may be forced to leave the Eurozone and put other European nations at risk.
  • If Greece cannot come to terms with the austerity package laid out by the ECB and IMF, the euro will most likely face a massive run on the currency and could continue the free fall down below the 2010 lows towards 1.1600. We still like our Q2 projected low @ 1.2324.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0095
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0201
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0429

INDEXES

ESM12:  

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1389.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1386.00. Downside Target = 1368.25 – 1345.00 – 1318.50.
  • New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 1325.50. Downside Targets over 195% achieved.
  • The June S&P’s dropped lower on Tuesday after failing to hold the mid-day rally and dropped sharply lower heading into the close.
  • The S&P’s have not logged their longest period of declines since early November and should continue lower towards the Q2 objective low of 1318.50.
  • As noted numerous times since January 3, 2012, the S&P’s have still not traded back to the 2011 close and there is a 100% probability it does so during the 2012 calendar year.
  • The current move looks like it may be the one to take it lower to the 2011 close @ 1252.50.
  • Projected Daily Range: 19.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 43.25
  • Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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