KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNM12: ROLL
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66 – 108.44.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 112.68. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 112.68 or higher.
- June Brent Crude found some level of support on Tuesday as it continues to work out to the side in the mini-consolidation price action it has established over the past 7 sessions.
- Brent is once again widening the spread between itself and WTI but the market seems to still have some unfinished business a bit lower and ultimately should run sell stops below $110 at our Intermediate downside target @ 108.44.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.72
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.17
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.41
CLM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44 – 93.98 – 89.97.
- New lows made on current move Monday @ 93.02. Downside Target over 230% achieved.
- June WTI Crude continued its decline on Tuesday, making fresh new 2012 lows as it threatens to violate the December active contract lows @ 92.52.
- WTI will most likely continue lower toward the projected Intermediate Term bottom @ 89.97 to run “hot” money out of the market before it finds its Intermediate Term support price.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.09
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.12
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.25
NGM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/15/12 @ 2.413. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Downside Targets = 2.272 – 2.090
- Bullish OVB generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 2.413 or lower.
- June Nat Gas reversed its course on Tuesday as buyers swooped into the market below last Wednesday’s low and shot the market to new highs for the week.
- Nat gas is proving a bit more resilient than first projected but still should not break through the March highs @ 2.607.
- Projected Daily Range: .107
- Projected Weekly Range: .240
- Projected Monthly Range: .460
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1645.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1634.80. Downside Targets 1599.10 – 1528.10.
- New lows made on current move @ 1555.00. Downside Target over 190% achieved.
- June Gold fell again on Tuesday to its lowest level since late December as its entire day’s trading range was well below the daily Support Bollinger Band.
- As we mentioned in our report last week, Gold achieved the 100% probability of trading the 2011 close @ 1566.80 on Monday and shows no signs of slowing on the way to our Q2 objective of 1517.10.
- Projected Daily Range: 25.70
- Projected Weekly Range: 57.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 92.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2935 – 1.2805 – 1.2623.
- Bearish ERVB (Extended Range Vertical Bar) generated on Tuesday making new lows on current move @ 1.2723. Downside Target over 160% achieved.
- The June Euro FX broke sharply lower as Greece has now called for a new government and raised fears that the country may be forced to leave the Eurozone and put other European nations at risk.
- If Greece cannot come to terms with the austerity package laid out by the ECB and IMF, the euro will most likely face a massive run on the currency and could continue the free fall down below the 2010 lows towards 1.1600. We still like our Q2 projected low @ 1.2324.
- Projected Daily Range: .0095
- Projected Weekly Range: .0201
- Projected Monthly Range: .0429
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1389.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1386.00. Downside Target = 1368.25 – 1345.00 – 1318.50.
- New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 1325.50. Downside Targets over 195% achieved.
- The June S&P’s dropped lower on Tuesday after failing to hold the mid-day rally and dropped sharply lower heading into the close.
- The S&P’s have not logged their longest period of declines since early November and should continue lower towards the Q2 objective low of 1318.50.
- As noted numerous times since January 3, 2012, the S&P’s have still not traded back to the 2011 close and there is a 100% probability it does so during the 2012 calendar year.
- The current move looks like it may be the one to take it lower to the 2011 close @ 1252.50.
- Projected Daily Range: 19.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
