Euro could challenge 2010 lows; S&P to retrace 2011 close

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 05/16/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNM12: ROLL

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66 – 108.44.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 112.68. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 112.68 or higher.
  • June Brent Crude found some level of support on Tuesday as it continues to work out to the side in the mini-consolidation price action it has established over the past 7 sessions.
  • Brent is once again widening the spread between itself and WTI but the market seems to still have some unfinished business a bit lower and ultimately should run sell stops below $110 at our Intermediate downside target @ 108.44.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.72
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.17
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.41

CLM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44 – 93.98 – 89.97.
  • New lows made on current move Monday @ 93.02. Downside Target over 230% achieved.
  • June WTI Crude continued its decline on Tuesday, making fresh new 2012 lows as it threatens to violate the December active contract lows @ 92.52.
  • WTI will most likely continue lower toward the projected Intermediate Term bottom @ 89.97 to run “hot” money out of the market before it finds its Intermediate Term support price.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.09
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.12
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.25

NGM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/15/12 @ 2.413. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Downside Targets = 2.272 – 2.090
  • Bullish OVB generated on Tuesday.  Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 2.413 or lower.
  • June Nat Gas reversed its course on Tuesday as buyers swooped into the market below last Wednesday’s low and shot the market to new highs for the week.
  • Nat gas is proving a bit more resilient than first projected but still should not break through the March highs @ 2.607.
  • Projected Daily Range: .107
  • Projected Weekly Range: .240
  • Projected Monthly Range: .460

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