Oil and gold fall to fresh 2012 lows, volatile week ahead

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 05/15/12

METALS

GCM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1645.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1634.80. Downside Targets 1599.10 – 1528.10.
  • New lows made on current move @ 1555.00. Downside Target over 170% achieved.
  • June Gold continued its decline to begin this week as it made new 2012 lows on its 9th consecutive day of lower highs.
  • Gold shows no signs of bucking the downside pressure it has faced over the past few months on its way to our Q2 downside objective of $1517.10.
  • Projected Daily Range: 23.70
  • Projected Weekly Range: 57.70
  • Projected Monthly Range: 92.10

CURRENCIES

ECM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2935 – 1.2805.
  • New lows made on current move Monday @ 1.2826. Downside Target over 140% achieved.
  • The June Euro FX once again moved lower for its 10th straight day of losses and came within 20 ticks of our Short Term downside objective of 1.2805.
  • Continuing on yesterday’s sentiments, the market may see a slight short-covering rally sometime this week but with a very pessimistic outlook overseas, the market could fall quickly to our Q2 downside objective @ 1.2324 over the next few weeks.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0088
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0201
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0429

INDEXES

ESM12:  

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1389.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1386.00. Downside Target = 1368.25 – 1345.00.
  • VRCB generated on Monday making new lows on current move @ 1333.25. Downside Target over 185% achieved.
  • The June S&P’s continued lower on Monday in a very tight trading range as it closed below the daily Support Bollinger Band and right on the Short Term support trend line that has held the market lows over the past 6 weeks.
  • With a busy week full of important market-moving reports, the volatility should no doubt increase in the coming days and possibly take this market towards our Q2 downside objective of 1318.50.
  • Projected Daily Range: 18.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 43.25
  • Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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