Oil and gold fall to fresh 2012 lows, volatile week ahead

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 05/15/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66 – 108.44.
  • New lows made on current move Monday @ 110.04. Downside Target over 150% achieved.
  • June Brent Crude generated new 3 month lows to begin the week before moving a bit higher towards the day’s close and settling in the upper 75% of the day’s trading range.
  • Brent should continue lower for the most part down towards our Intermediate downside target @ 108.44.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.65
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.17
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.41

CLM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44 – 93.98 – 89.97.
  • New lows made on current move Monday @ 93.65. Downside Target over 225% achieved.
  • June WTI Crude made fresh 2012 lows on Monday after hitting our Q2 downside target of 93.98 and rallied back towards the may’s mid-range at the close of the pit-session.
  • With the Q2 target already achieved, the market still looks like it could head further south, possibly retesting the $90 threshold at our extended downside objective of 89.97.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.82
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.12
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.25

NGM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/24/12 @ 2.114. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Downside Targets = 2.272 – 2.090
  • Close < Low Of High Bar generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.413. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 2.413 or lower.
  • June Nat Gas saw a sharp decline on Monday after breaking through Friday’s low as a possible Short Term top and follow through on this weekend’s report to push this market back lower to 2.090.
  • Projected Daily Range: .098
  • Projected Weekly Range: .240
  • Projected Monthly Range: .460

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