Natural gas buyers running thin, gold looks at Q4 2011 lows

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 05/14/12

Natural gas

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66.
  • VRCB generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 113.65. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 113.65 or higher.
  • June Brent Crude moved lower on Friday as it closed at its lowest price in 3 ½ months before finding support at the daily Support Bollinger Band.
  • The last trade on Friday ended below the daily mid-range and should look to take this market lower on Monday to retest last week’s low @ 110.34 and trade to our Intermediate Term downside targets @ 108.44 - 107.38.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.63
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.17
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.41

CLM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 97.70. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 97.70 or higher.
  • June WTI Crude lost ground on Friday as it made fresh lows for the day going into the close and pointing the close indicator for Monday downward to our Q2 2012 projected low @ 93.98.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.82
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.12
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.25

NGM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/24/12 @ 2.114. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.330 – 2.435
  • VRCB generated on Friday making new highs on current move @ 2.531. STR3MO over 150% achieved.
  • June Nat Gas advanced again Friday for the fifth straight day in a day with low volatility as the buying support appears to be running thin.
  • If Friday’s low is broken @ 2.455 this market could experience a sharp correction back down to 2.09.
  • Projected Daily Range: .098
  • Projected Weekly Range: .240
  • Projected Monthly Range: .460

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