KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66.
- VRCB generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 113.65. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 113.65 or higher.
- June Brent Crude moved lower on Friday as it closed at its lowest price in 3 ½ months before finding support at the daily Support Bollinger Band.
- The last trade on Friday ended below the daily mid-range and should look to take this market lower on Monday to retest last week’s low @ 110.34 and trade to our Intermediate Term downside targets @ 108.44 - 107.38.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.63
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.17
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.41
CLM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 97.70. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 97.70 or higher.
- June WTI Crude lost ground on Friday as it made fresh lows for the day going into the close and pointing the close indicator for Monday downward to our Q2 2012 projected low @ 93.98.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.82
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.12
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.25
NGM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/24/12 @ 2.114. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.330 – 2.435
- VRCB generated on Friday making new highs on current move @ 2.531. STR3MO over 150% achieved.
- June Nat Gas advanced again Friday for the fifth straight day in a day with low volatility as the buying support appears to be running thin.
- If Friday’s low is broken @ 2.455 this market could experience a sharp correction back down to 2.09.
- Projected Daily Range: .098
- Projected Weekly Range: .240
- Projected Monthly Range: .460
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1645.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1634.80. Downside Targets 1611.30 – 1599.10.
- New lows made on current move @ 1572.00. Downside Target over 150% achieved.
- June Gold broke lower again on Friday as it came within $7 of the 2012 lows before rallying back to settle at the daily mid-range.
- For the third straight day, gold had its entire day’s range below the Support Bollinger Band as it follows the Intermediate Term downtrend channel lower and should violated the 2012 lows next week followed by a retest of the Q4 2011 lows @ 1523.90.
- Projected Daily Range: 23.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 57.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 92.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2935 – 1.2805.
- DOUBLE VRCB generated on Friday making new lows on current move @ 1.2906. Downside Target over 110% achieved.
- The June Euro FX moved lower again on Friday, its 9th consecutive day of losses and 3rd consecutive close below the daily Support Bollinger Band.
- The low volatility is most likely due to selling pressure being exhausted on the short-term but the technical picture still points this market lower, possibly seeing another 300 points to the downside to our Intermediate Term target 1.2457. We still like our Q2 2012 projected low @ 1.2324.
- Projected Daily Range: .0068
- Projected Weekly Range: .0182
- Projected Monthly Range: .0429
INDICES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1389.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1386.00. Downside Target = 1368.25 – 1345.00.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1364.00. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1364.00 or higher.
- The June S&P’s moved lower again Friday to end the week closing at its lowest level in over 2 months before finding support above the daily Support Bollinger Band.
- Monday should follow through on Friday’s bearish close indicator and trade towards 1319.75 as next week’s low.
- Projected Daily Range: 19.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
