KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 113.65. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 113.65 or higher.
- June Brent Crude stopped one tick shy of confirming a Short Term bottom in the market before retreating lower on the day, equaling the lowest close in the past 3 months.
- Brent could make another $5 move lower to the 2012 lows @ 107.38 before finding any true support.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.20
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.17
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.41
CLM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 97.70. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 97.70 or higher.
- June WTI Crude advance for the first time in seven days Thursday before the electronic after-hours market pushed it back lower toward the day’s low.
- WTI will most likely fare worse than Brent if the market continues its plunge lower as the next Intermediate Term objective shows 89.97 if this week’s low is violated @ 95.17.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.14
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.12
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.25
NGM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/24/12 @ 2.114. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.330 – 2.435
- New highs made on current move Thursday @ 2.519. Upside Target over 145% achieved.
- June Nat Gas has moved higher everyday so far this week as it has rode the Resistance Bollinger Band higher and higher as the price of crude oil sinks.
- Nat gas continues its rise, slow and steady, but still faces a strong Short Term resistance target @ 2.607.
- Projected Daily Range: .135
- Projected Weekly Range: .240
- Projected Monthly Range: .460
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1645.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1634.80. Downside Targets 1611.30 – 1599.10.
- Inside day generated Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1607.10. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1607.10 or higher.
- June Gold digested some if its losses it has incurred over the last week on Thursday as it chopped back and forth in a narrow trading range but closed above the daily mid-range for the second straight day.
- This price action is quite common after a market has seen several days of losses heading into a weekend and gold could again see some liquidation on Friday. We still like our Intermediate Term downside target at $1,528.10.
- Projected Daily Range: 29.90
- Projected Weekly Range: 57.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 92.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2935 – 1.2805.
- Inside VRCB generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.3010. Possible Conservative confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.3010 or higher.
- The June Euro FX traded within an extremely narrow range on Thursday as the market is seemingly taking a break from the massive amount of short-selling it has endured over the last 8 sessions.
- The movement to the downside may not even be close to finished as Intermediate Term objectives projected this market below 1.2500 down to 0ur Q2 objective of 1.2324.
- Projected Daily Range: .0078
- Projected Weekly Range: .0201
- Projected Monthly Range: .0429
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1389.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1386.00. Downside Target = 1368.25 – 1345.00.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1364.00. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1364.00 or higher.
- The June S&P’s saw a short-covering rally on Thursday as the market traded in a very thin range during most of the pit session before settling just above its daily mid-range.
- The S&P’s will most likely falter after very little interest appeared today even at current “attractive” price levels. A close below 1362.50 today almost ensures additional selling pressure taking out this week’s low at 1339.25.
- Note: It is important that you not forget that even though this market has had a great start to the year, there has NEVER been a year that has not encompassed the previous year’s close in its trading range.
- 2011 Close = 1252.50
- 2012 Low = 1259.75
- Projected Daily Range: 21.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
