KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1645.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1634.80. Downside Targets 1611.30 – 1599.10.
- New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 1578.50. Downside Target 150% achieved.
- June Gold continued lower on Wednesday as it came within just $10 of the 2011 closing price of $1566.80, essentially eliminating all gains over a five month period for those who subscribe to the “buy and hold” trading philosophy. This market is off $214.20 from the 2012 highs.
- As noted in last week’s report, we projected that this market should continue lower to retest the December lows of $1,523.90 before finding a Short-Term bottom on our Intermediate Term downside target at $1,528.10.
- Projected Daily Range: 28.10
- Projected Weekly Range: 57.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 92.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2935 – 1.2805.
- New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 1.2913. Downside Targets 110% achieved.
- The June Euro FX lost ground for the eighth consecutive day on Wednesday as it made new three-month lows while trading nearly its entire day’s range below the Support Bollinger Band.
- With the current crises (heavy on the multiple) going on overseas, this market could very easily just be getting started on its way lower with our Q2 objective of 1.2324 coming into play and taking this market to new 18 month lows.
- Projected Daily Range: .0101
- Projected Weekly Range: .0201
- Projected Monthly Range: .0429
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1389.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1386.00. Downside Target = 1368.25 – 1345.00.
- New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 1339.25. Downside Target over 150% achieved.
- The June S&Ps again moved lower on Wednesday yet closed back above the day’s mid-range as it has every day this week.
- The S&Ps continue to shake off the fear trade from the early morning traders with the late day rallies but all the while have generated their sixth straight day of declines.
- Look for the market to start garnering some support as it approaches the March lows @ 1332.75.
- Projected Daily Range: 24.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
ENERGIES
BRNM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66.
- Inside day generated on Wednesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 113.65. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 113.65 or higher.
- June Brent Crude again spent most of the early trading session working its way lower before garnering support after a larger than expected build in crude inventories.
- With Brent settling just a few ticks off the high of the day, look for the market to again move slightly lower in initial trading before trying to make new highs for the week and continuing to 115.65.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.74
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.17
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.41
CLM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44.
- New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 95.17. Downside Target over 185% achieved.
- June WTI Crude did not fare as well as Brent on Wednesday, losing ground for the sixth consecutive day and yet again closing below the daily Support Bollinger Band.
- The Short Term bottom is likely close in WTI with our Q2 downside objective of 93.98 more than 90% achieved.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.57
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.12
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.25
NGM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/24/12 @ 2.114. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.330 – 2.435
- New highs made on current move Wednesday @ 2.509. Upside Targets over 145% achieved.
- June Nat Gas continues to move higher as the price of Crude drops and the market has now put in its third consecutive week of higher highs/lows on its way to making new six week highs.
- The biggest price point still ahead in natural gas is $2.607, at which point the Short Term trend will reverse to bullish for the first time in a year.
- Projected Daily Range: .126
- Projected Weekly Range: .240
- Projected Monthly Range: .460
