Stock indexes balance morning fear trade with late rallies

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 05/10/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

METALS

GCM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1645.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1634.80. Downside Targets 1611.30 – 1599.10.
  • New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 1578.50. Downside Target 150% achieved.
  • June Gold continued lower on Wednesday as it came within just $10 of the 2011 closing price of $1566.80, essentially eliminating all gains over a five month period for those who subscribe to the “buy and hold” trading philosophy. This market is off $214.20 from the 2012 highs.
  • As noted in last week’s report, we projected that this market should continue lower to retest the December lows of $1,523.90 before finding a Short-Term bottom on our Intermediate Term downside target at $1,528.10.
  • Projected Daily Range: 28.10
  • Projected Weekly Range: 57.70
  • Projected Monthly Range: 92.10

CURRENCIES

ECM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2935 – 1.2805.
  • New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 1.2913. Downside Targets 110% achieved.
  • The June Euro FX lost ground for the eighth consecutive day on Wednesday as it made new three-month lows while trading nearly its entire day’s range below the Support Bollinger Band.
  • With the current crises (heavy on the multiple) going on overseas, this market could very easily just be getting started on its way lower with our Q2 objective of 1.2324 coming into play and taking this market to new 18 month lows.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0101
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0201
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0429

INDEXES

ESM12:  

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1389.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1386.00. Downside Target = 1368.25 – 1345.00.
  • New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 1339.25. Downside Target over 150% achieved.
  • The June S&Ps again moved lower on Wednesday yet closed back above the day’s mid-range as it has every day this week.
  • The S&Ps continue to shake off the fear trade from the early morning traders with the late day rallies but all the while have generated their sixth straight day of declines.
  • Look for the market to start garnering some support as it approaches the March lows @ 1332.75.
  • Projected Daily Range: 24.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 43.25
  • Projected Monthly Range: 73.25

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