KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 113.65. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 113.65 or higher.
- June Brent Crude spent most of the day trading lower on Tuesday before staging an end-of-day rally as it closed just below the daily Support Bollinger Band.
- Brent should see an initial setback on Wednesday and, dependent upon the EIA Petroleum report, should eventually close back above $113.
- Projected Daily Range: 3.60
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.17
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.41
CLM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44.
- Inside day generated Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 98.25. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 98.25 or higher.
- June Crude followed Brent lower on Tuesday as the markets are still suffering from shock over the new Eurozone leadership changes before finding support above Monday’s low.
- If WTI is able to hold up above $96 after the EIA announcement on Wednesday, look for a Short Term bottom to be in and the market to trade back above $100 before the week’s end.
- Projected Daily Range: 3.14
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.12
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.25
NGM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/24/12 @ 2.114. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.330 – 2.435
- New 6 week highs made on Tuesday @ 2.461. Upside Targets over 125% achieved.
- June Nat Gas was able to break out of its recent contracted trading range to the upside on Tuesday before running into Short Term resistance just below $2.50
- The bias in the market is still to the downside after coming to within 11 cents of our major-term downside objective @ 1.799 and will remain that way unless this market can close above 2.607.
- Projected Daily Range: .127
- Projected Weekly Range: .240
- Projected Monthly Range: .460
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1645.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1634.80. Downside Targets 1611.30 – 1599.10.
- New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 1595.50. Downside Target over 125% achieved.
- June Gold broke sharply lower on Tuesday as it erased its gains for 2012 and closed below the daily Support Bollinger Band for the first time in two months.
- As stated last week, look for this market to continue lower all the way down to our Intermediate Term target of $1,528.10.
- Projected Daily Range: 25.70
- Projected Weekly Range: 57.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 92.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2935 – 1.2805.
- Inside day generated Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.3069. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1.3069 or higher.
- The June Euro FX fell lower on Tuesday as the fall-out from the recent turn in events in both the French presidential election and Greece elections are still playing themselves out.
- Look for the Euro to continue lower towards our Short Term downside target of 1.2935 and if the market breaks 1.2900, it could fall further towards our Q2 downside number of 1.2324.
- Projected Daily Range: .0103
- Projected Weekly Range: .0201
- Projected Monthly Range: .0429
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1389.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1386.00. Downside Target = 1368.25 – 1345.00.
- Inside day generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1370.50. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1370.50 or higher.
- The June S&P’s traded sharply lower initially during Tuesday morning before staging a rally towards the days end to close back above the daily mid-range.
- If the S&P’s are able to find additional support on Wednesday at the daily Support Bollinger Band, this market could stage a small Short Term recovery back to 1388.75.
- Projected Daily Range: 26.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
