Oil building base for move higher, gold eyeing $1,528

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 05/08/12

METALS

GCM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1645.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1634.80. Downside Targets 1611.30 – 1599.10.
  • VRCB generated on Monday.
  • June Gold stopped within $3 of generated a double OVB week on Friday and then bounced off the Intermediate Term support trend line as it closed in the upper 90% of the day’s trading range.
  • Gold has consolidated its price action over the last six weeks, unable to break to either new highs or lows as investors seem to look elsewhere during the current European mess.
  • If gold closes below $1,625 on a daily level, look out below as this market could fall to $1,528.90 rapidly.
  • Projected Daily Range: 18.70
  • Projected Weekly Range: 59.30
  • Projected Monthly Range: 92.10

CURRENCIES

ECM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2935 – 1.2805.
  • Monday set new lows on current move @ 1.2957. Downside Target 90% achieved.
  • The June Euro FX gapped open 14 ticks lower on Monday just as we predicted in yesterday’s report followed by a nice rally to close in the upper 90% of the range.
  • If the low side of the gap @ 1.3082 is not filled look for this market to trade to our downside target at 1.2935.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0103
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0193
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0429

INDEXES

ESM12:  

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1389.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1386.00. Downside Target = 1368.25.
  • New lows made on current move Monday @ 1342.50. Downside Target over 130% achieved.
  • The June S&P’s violated the April low of 1352.50 as we predicted yesterday finding support above 1132.75 and has sold off about 5% from the May 1 high.
  • Look for the S&P’s to build a base down in this area as it starts another push higher.
  • Projected Daily Range: 24.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 38.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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