KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66.
- June Brent Crude found support yesterday as we predicted in Monday’s report above $110 with the low of 110.34 followed by a $2 rally and close @ 113.16.
- Due to the increase in volatility, look for the market to trade back to yesterday’s mid-range @ 111.92 before it tries to recover a little bit of lost ground.
- Projected Daily Range: 3.41
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.69
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.41
CLM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44.
- June WTI Crude ran 10 ticks through the Q1 low @ 95.44 as we predicted in Monday’s report running sell stops and making a short covering rally the rest of the trading session.
- WTI will most likely trade to yesterday’s mid-range @ 96.79 and start building a base to move higher.
- Projected Daily Range: 3.72
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.34
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.25
NGM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/24/12 @ 2.114. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.330 – 2.435
- VRCB generated yesterday with the 3rd inside day building compression.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.235. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 2.235 or lower.
- June Nat Gas generated its third consecutive inside day as well as the fifth day in a row of lower highs.
- If natural gas trades below last Wednesday’s low of $2.236, this market should break quickly below $2.200 to $2.100 as it will eventually retest the current contract lows at $1.982.
- Projected Daily Range: .108
- Projected Weekly Range: .191
- Projected Monthly Range: .460
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1645.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1634.80. Downside Targets 1611.30 – 1599.10.
- VRCB generated on Monday.
- June Gold stopped within $3 of generated a double OVB week on Friday and then bounced off the Intermediate Term support trend line as it closed in the upper 90% of the day’s trading range.
- Gold has consolidated its price action over the last six weeks, unable to break to either new highs or lows as investors seem to look elsewhere during the current European mess.
- If gold closes below $1,625 on a daily level, look out below as this market could fall to $1,528.90 rapidly.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.70
- Projected Weekly Range: 59.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 92.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2935 – 1.2805.
- Monday set new lows on current move @ 1.2957. Downside Target 90% achieved.
- The June Euro FX gapped open 14 ticks lower on Monday just as we predicted in yesterday’s report followed by a nice rally to close in the upper 90% of the range.
- If the low side of the gap @ 1.3082 is not filled look for this market to trade to our downside target at 1.2935.
- Projected Daily Range: .0103
- Projected Weekly Range: .0193
- Projected Monthly Range: .0429
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1389.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1386.00. Downside Target = 1368.25.
- New lows made on current move Monday @ 1342.50. Downside Target over 130% achieved.
- The June S&P’s violated the April low of 1352.50 as we predicted yesterday finding support above 1132.75 and has sold off about 5% from the May 1 high.
- Look for the S&P’s to build a base down in this area as it starts another push higher.
- Projected Daily Range: 24.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 38.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
