Oil building base for move higher, gold eyeing $1,528

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 05/08/12

Oil Pumpjacks

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66.
  • June Brent Crude found support yesterday as we predicted in Monday’s report above $110 with the low of 110.34 followed by a $2 rally and close @ 113.16.
  • Due to the increase in volatility, look for the market to trade back to yesterday’s mid-range @ 111.92 before it tries to recover a little bit of lost ground.
  • Projected Daily Range: 3.41
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.69
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.41

CLM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44.
  • June WTI Crude ran 10 ticks through the Q1 low @ 95.44 as we predicted in Monday’s report running sell stops and making a short covering rally the rest of the trading session.
  • WTI will most likely trade to yesterday’s mid-range @ 96.79 and start building a base to move higher.
  • Projected Daily Range: 3.72
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.34
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.25

NGM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/24/12 @ 2.114. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.330 – 2.435
  • VRCB generated yesterday with the 3rd inside day building compression.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.235. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 2.235 or lower.
  • June Nat Gas generated its third consecutive inside day as well as the fifth day in a row of lower highs.
  • If natural gas trades below last Wednesday’s low of $2.236, this market should break quickly below $2.200 to $2.100 as it will eventually retest the current contract lows at $1.982.
  • Projected Daily Range: .108
  • Projected Weekly Range: .191
  • Projected Monthly Range: .460

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