Oil slide could reach $95 before finding support

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 05/07/12

METALS

GCM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1645.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1634.80. Downside Targets 1611.30 – 1599.10.
  • New lows made on current move Friday @ 1626.80. Downside Target 75% achieved.
  • June Gold stopped within $3 of generated a double OVB week on Friday and then bounced off the Intermediate Term support trend line as it closed in the upper 90% of the day’s trading range.
  • Gold has consolidated its price action over the last 6 weeks, unable to break to either new highs or lows as investors seem to look elsewhere during the current European mess.
  • If gold closes below $1,625 on a daily level, look out below as this market could fall to $1,528.90 rapidly.
  • Projected Daily Range: 20.70
  • Projected Weekly Range: 59.30
  • Projected Monthly Range: 92.10

CURRENCIES

ECM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2935 – 1.2805.
  • Bearish AOVB (Almost Outside Vertical Bar) by 2 ticks generated on Friday making new lows on current move @ 1.3082. Downside Target 60% achieved.
  • The June Euro FX moved lower on Friday as the market saw declines every trading day last week.
  • With France electing a socialist president, the Euro should experience a dramatic sell-off in early trading Monday in what should no doubt be a very volatile beginning to the new week.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0102
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0193
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0429

INDEXES

ESM12:  

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1389.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1386.00. Downside Target = 1368.25.
  • New lows made on current move Friday @ 1361.50. Downside Target over 105% achieved.
  • The June S&P’s were demolished on Friday as the saw one of their worst sessions of 2012 and closed just a few ticks off the day’s low.
  • Look for the S&P’s to continue the push lower on Monday and to violate April’s low of 1352.50 before finding the next Short Term support level of 1332.75.
  • Projected Daily Range: 20.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 38.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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