KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66.
- Bearish ERVB (Extended Range Vertical Bar) generated on Friday making new 13 week lows @ 111.76. Downside Target over 130% achieved.
- June Brent Crude was obliterated on Friday as the Euro debt crises and poor jobs number aided in taking the market to its lowest level in 3 months.
- Due to the increase in volatility, look for the market to break last week’s low of 111.76 before finding enormous Short Term support above $110 as it tries to recover a little bit of lost ground.
- Projected Daily Range: 3.07
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.69
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.41
CLM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44.
- Bearish ERVB (Extended Range Vertical Bar) generated on Friday making new 12 week lows @ 97.51. Downside Target over 160% achieved.
- June WTI Crude was also hit hard Friday by the bad economic news while the market had its biggest losing day in six months.
- WTI will most likely run the sell stops below the Q1 low @ 95.44 before making a short-covering rally during Monday’s trading session.
- Projected Daily Range: 3.14
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.34
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.25
NGM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/24/12 @ 2.114. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.330 – 2.435
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.235. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 2.235 or lower.
- June Nat Gas generated its second consecutive inside day on Friday as it reversed its close indicator from bullish to bearish after again finding strong resistance at the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
- If natural gas trades below last Wednesday’s low of 2.236, this market should break quickly below 2.200 to 2.100 as it will eventually retest the current contract lows @ 1.982.
- Projected Daily Range: .129
- Projected Weekly Range: .191
- Projected Monthly Range: .460
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1645.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1634.80. Downside Targets 1611.30 – 1599.10.
- New lows made on current move Friday @ 1626.80. Downside Target 75% achieved.
- June Gold stopped within $3 of generated a double OVB week on Friday and then bounced off the Intermediate Term support trend line as it closed in the upper 90% of the day’s trading range.
- Gold has consolidated its price action over the last 6 weeks, unable to break to either new highs or lows as investors seem to look elsewhere during the current European mess.
- If gold closes below $1,625 on a daily level, look out below as this market could fall to $1,528.90 rapidly.
- Projected Daily Range: 20.70
- Projected Weekly Range: 59.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 92.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 05/04/12 @ 1.3089. Downside Targets = 1.2935 – 1.2805.
- Bearish AOVB (Almost Outside Vertical Bar) by 2 ticks generated on Friday making new lows on current move @ 1.3082. Downside Target 60% achieved.
- The June Euro FX moved lower on Friday as the market saw declines every trading day last week.
- With France electing a socialist president, the Euro should experience a dramatic sell-off in early trading Monday in what should no doubt be a very volatile beginning to the new week.
- Projected Daily Range: .0102
- Projected Weekly Range: .0193
- Projected Monthly Range: .0429
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1389.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1386.00. Downside Target = 1368.25.
- New lows made on current move Friday @ 1361.50. Downside Target over 105% achieved.
- The June S&P’s were demolished on Friday as the saw one of their worst sessions of 2012 and closed just a few ticks off the day’s low.
- Look for the S&P’s to continue the push lower on Monday and to violate April’s low of 1352.50 before finding the next Short Term support level of 1332.75.
- Projected Daily Range: 20.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 38.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
