Oil slide could reach $95 before finding support

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 05/07/12

Oil chart

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66.
  • Bearish ERVB (Extended Range Vertical Bar) generated on Friday making new 13 week lows @ 111.76. Downside Target over 130% achieved.
  • June Brent Crude was obliterated on Friday as the Euro debt crises and poor jobs number aided in taking the market to its lowest level in 3 months.
  • Due to the increase in volatility, look for the market to break last week’s low of 111.76 before finding enormous Short Term support above $110 as it tries to recover a little bit of lost ground.
  • Projected Daily Range: 3.07
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.69
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.41

CLM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44.
  • Bearish ERVB (Extended Range Vertical Bar) generated on Friday making new 12 week lows @ 97.51. Downside Target over 160% achieved.
  • June WTI Crude was also hit hard Friday by the bad economic news while the market had its biggest losing day in six months.
  • WTI will most likely run the sell stops below the Q1 low @ 95.44 before making a short-covering rally during Monday’s trading session.
  • Projected Daily Range: 3.14
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.34
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.25

NGM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/24/12 @ 2.114. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.330 – 2.435
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.235. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 2.235 or lower.
  • June Nat Gas generated its second consecutive inside day on Friday as it reversed its close indicator from bullish to bearish after again finding strong resistance at the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
  • If natural gas trades below last Wednesday’s low of 2.236, this market should break quickly below 2.200 to 2.100 as it will eventually retest the current contract lows @ 1.982.
  • Projected Daily Range: .129
  • Projected Weekly Range: .191
  • Projected Monthly Range: .460

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