Crude, gold and stock indexes turn bearish

Gold and S&Ps reverse to dark side

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 05/04/12

 

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar

VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

 

ENERGIES

 

BRNM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66.
  • New low made on current move Thursday @ 115.92. Downside Target 70% achieved.
    • June Brent Crude saw its second day of increased downward momentum as the market blew through the April lows @ 116.70 and closed below the daily Support Bollinger Band.
    • Friday should more than likely be a short-covering day after the market has lost over $4 in the past 2 sessions. However, this market could be picking up steam towards our extreme downside target @ 113.66.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.97
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.69
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.41

 

CLM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44.
    • June WTI Crude traded in line with yesterday’s report calling for a sharp move lower once Tuesday’s low @ 104.39 was violated as WTI saw its largest one day decline in over a month.
    • Look for WTI to retest the April lows @ 100.86 and possibly violate it as the market seems poised to go after the weekly downside objective of 98.98.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.08
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.34
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.25

 

NGM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/24/12 @ 2.114. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.330 – 2.435
  • Inside day generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.235. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 2.235 or lower.
    • June Nat Gas moved back higher on Thursday as the storage injection was lower than expected causing the market to rally nearly a dime off its lows.
    • Nat gas has still found heavy resistance below this week’s current highs @ 2.385 along with the daily Resistance Bollinger Band and should break lower if it is unable to make new highs for the week on Friday .
  • Projected Daily Range: .125
  • Projected Weekly Range: .191
  • Projected Monthly Range: .460

METALS

 

GCM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1645.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1634.80. Downside Targets 1611.30 – 1599.10.
  • Range Violation TREND REVERSAL to bearish @ 1645.90. Closed Range TREND REVERSAL to bearish @ 1634.80.
    • June Gold reacted in perfect correlation to our report for the second day in a row as it traded just a mere $1 through our daily objective as it dropped nearly $20 on the day.
    • If gold breaks lower on Friday through last week’s low @ 1623.60, this market could be in serious trouble and see another $80 drop down to 1550.50 before it finds support.  All indications are pointing to our Q2 projected low @ 1517.10.
  • Projected Daily Range: 18.60
  • Projected Weekly Range: 59.30
  • Projected Monthly Range: 92.10

 

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