Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 05/04/12
KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/02/12 @ 118.20. Downside Targets = 115.14 – 113.66.
- New low made on current move Thursday @ 115.92. Downside Target 70% achieved.
- June Brent Crude saw its second day of increased downward momentum as the market blew through the April lows @ 116.70 and closed below the daily Support Bollinger Band.
- Friday should more than likely be a short-covering day after the market has lost over $4 in the past 2 sessions. However, this market could be picking up steam towards our extreme downside target @ 113.66.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.97
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.69
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.41
CLM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 104.38. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 102.54. Downside Target = 100.44.
- June WTI Crude traded in line with yesterday’s report calling for a sharp move lower once Tuesday’s low @ 104.39 was violated as WTI saw its largest one day decline in over a month.
- Look for WTI to retest the April lows @ 100.86 and possibly violate it as the market seems poised to go after the weekly downside objective of 98.98.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.08
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.34
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.25
NGM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/24/12 @ 2.114. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.330 – 2.435
- Inside day generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.235. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 2.235 or lower.
- June Nat Gas moved back higher on Thursday as the storage injection was lower than expected causing the market to rally nearly a dime off its lows.
- Nat gas has still found heavy resistance below this week’s current highs @ 2.385 along with the daily Resistance Bollinger Band and should break lower if it is unable to make new highs for the week on Friday .
- Projected Daily Range: .125
- Projected Weekly Range: .191
- Projected Monthly Range: .460
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1645.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1634.80. Downside Targets 1611.30 – 1599.10.
- Range Violation TREND REVERSAL to bearish @ 1645.90. Closed Range TREND REVERSAL to bearish @ 1634.80.
- June Gold reacted in perfect correlation to our report for the second day in a row as it traded just a mere $1 through our daily objective as it dropped nearly $20 on the day.
- If gold breaks lower on Friday through last week’s low @ 1623.60, this market could be in serious trouble and see another $80 drop down to 1550.50 before it finds support. All indications are pointing to our Q2 projected low @ 1517.10.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.60
- Projected Weekly Range: 59.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 92.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1.3123. Confirmation of a bottom on a close violation 04/20/12 @ 1.3219. Upside Targets = 1.3357 – 1.3418.
- Possible Conservative confirmation of a top with a close @ 1.3123 or lower.
- The June Euro FX broke lower overnight before rallying back in the early morning hours to essentially end the day flat while closing in the upper 75% of the day’s trading range.
- The Euro should continue its slide lower however the market has made quite the habit of chopping back and forth which is why we have recommended clients to look to alternative commodities until we see an increase in volatility.
- Projected Daily Range: .0096
- Projected Weekly Range: .0193
- Projected Monthly Range: .0429
INDICES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 05/03/12 @ 1389.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 05/03/12 @ 1386.00. Downside Target = 1368.25.
- Range violation TREND REVERSAL to bearish @ 1389.00. Closed range TREND REVERSAL to bearish @ 1386.00.
- The June S&P’s continued lower on Thursday as poor ISM numbers as well as technical resistance at 1400 helped to keep a lid on this market moving higher as we saw the first Short Term Trend Reversal back to bearish for the 2012 year.
- Look for the S&P’s to make serious push lower to retest the April low of 1352.50 and possibly our Q2 low @ 1318.50.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 38.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
