‘Could Weaken Further’
“Our internal flows have shown that exporters’ bid for yen has been absent for some time,” said Lee Hardman, a foreign- exchange strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London. “This may suggest perhaps that they still anticipate that the yen could weaken further and are looking for better levels to buy.”
New Zealand’s dollar, known as the kiwi, dropped against all of its 16 most-traded counterparts after unemployment exceeded the most pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg survey.
The jobless rate climbed to 6.7 percent in the first quarter from a revised 6.4 percent in the previous three months, Statistics New Zealand said.
“The overall unemployment headline number is worse,” said Tim Kelleher, Auckland-based head of institutional foreign- exchange sales at ASB Institutional, a unit of Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “The kiwi didn’t like the data.”
New Zealand’s currency dropped 1.2 percent to 80.08 U.S. cents and reached 80.02 cents, the weakest level since Jan. 20.
The euro may fall to this year’s low against the dollar should it break below an area of so-called support, Commerzbank AG said, citing trading patterns.
“Euro-dollar has seen significant failure at the $1.3269 and $1.3273 downtrends,” Karen Jones, head of fixed-income, commodity and currency technical analysis in London, wrote in a note to clients. Those levels represent the five-month downtrend and the eight-month channel, she said.
The euro is now likely to head toward support at its February low of $1.2974 and at $1.2954, which represents the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of its rally in January and February. “Failure here will target the $1.2624 January low,” she wrote.
Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a new high or low. Support is an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered.