Yen up, kiwi down in early trading

Daily forex winners & losers

 The New Zealand dollar is the weakest performer with a loss of 0.67% on the session. The kiwi now eyes critical support at the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement taken from the December advance and the 200-day moving average at 8080. This level remains paramount for the kiwi with a break eyeing subsequent daily targets lower at 50% retracement at 79.65. Key daily resistance stands with the 23.6% retracement at 8230 and channel resistance. Note that while RSI seems to have broken below trendline support dating back to March 6th, price action has not confirmed this break with only a close below 8080 opening the door for subsequent kiwi shorts.

 

The scalp chart shows the pair breaking below short-term channel support before finding solace at the 8090 soft support level. A break here eyes subsequent intra-day support targets at the 61.8% Fibonacci extension taken from the February 29th and April 12th crests at 8060, 8040, and the 78.6% extension just below the 80-figure. Interim topside resistance stands with the 50% extension at 8110 backed by the 38.2% extension at 8160 and 8185. While we remain bearish on the NZDUSD, we will wait on entry pending a break below key support at 8080 noted on the daily chart above. Key employment data out of New Zealand later tonight may be the catalyst with consensus estimates calling for a print of 0.3% q/q, up from a previous read of 0.1% q/q with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 6.3%.

 

New Zealand dollar levels

Level/Indicator

Level

200-Day SMA

0.8078

100-Day SMA

0.8110

50-Day SMA

0.8205

2012 nzd LOW

0.7709

 

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About the Author
Michael Boutros Michael Boutros, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com is a Technical/Fundamental Analyst specializing in the FX markets. E-mail: mboutros@fxcm.com.
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