Oil looking for a pullback before moving higher

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 05/02/12

METALS

GCM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/26/12 @ 1650.20. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/26/12 @ 1660.50. Upside Targets 1682.50 – 1694.30.
  • New high made on current move Tuesday @ 1672.30. Upside Target over 80% achieved.
  • June Gold pushed through last week’s high on Tuesday before being sold off aggressively by HFT’s as it closed lower for the second consecutive day.
  • With the daily close indicator pointing lower, look for gold to drop below $1650 on Wednesday to retest this week’s current low of 1645.10.
  • Projected Daily Range: 18.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 59.30
  • Projected Monthly Range: 92.10

CURRENCIES

ECM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/20/12 @ 1.3179. Confirmation of a bottom on a close violation 04/20/12 @ 1.3219. Upside Targets = 1.3357 – 1.3418.
  • Bearish VRCB-OVB combo generated on Tuesday after making new highs on current move @ 1.3287. Upside Target 85% achieved.
  • The June Euro FX followed through on the 86% probability of trading through last Friday’s high before running into strong technical resistance at the daily Resistance Bollinger Band and broke lower as it made new lows for the week.
  • Once Tuesday’s low is violated @ 1.3207, the Euro should continue lower towards 1.3086 down to 1.3053.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0084
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0193
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0429

INDEXES

ESM12:  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/25/12 @ 1375.00.Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 1387.25. Upside Targets = 1404.75 – 1423.75.
  • New highs made on current move Tuesday @ 1411.75. Upside Target over 110% achieved.
  • The June S&P’s broke out decisively higher on Tuesday morning after a strong ISM manufacturing report propelled the market to its highest level in nearly 4 weeks before selling off to close below the daily mid-range.
  • The S&P’s have ran nearly 60 points in the last 7 trading sessions without a single day’s low having been violated.
  • Look for the market to stage a modest sell-off back below 1390.00 this week before continuing higher.
  • Projected Daily Range: 16.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 38.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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