KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/26/12 @ 119.92. Upside Targets = 121.71 – 122.71.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 118.77 or lower.
- June Brent Crude traded back above $120 on Tuesday for a brief stint before settling back just above the day’s mid-range.
- With Brent failing to break through last week’s high of 120.17 in a relatively tight trading range, look for the market to retest this week’s lows @ 118.73 on Wednesday.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.46
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.69
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.41
CLM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/25/12 @ 104.11. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/12/12 @ 104.10. Upside Targets = 106.21 – 108.73.
- New highs made on current move Tuesday @ 106.43. Upside Target 80% achieved.
- June WTI Crude broke through April’s high on Tuesday as it cracked through the $106 threshold for the first time in 5 weeks, closing above the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
- Look for WTI to have a mild setback early on Wednesday before moving higher up to the weekly objective of 108.22 covering the full weekly range of 4.34.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.53
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.34
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.25
NGM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/24/12 @ 2.114. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.330 – 2.435
- New highs made on current move Tuesday @ 2.385. Upside Target over 115% achieved.
- June Nat Gas continued its run higher on Tuesday as it cracked through April’s high of 2.335 and closed above the daily Resistance Bollinger Band for the first time since late October of 2011.
- Having achieved the current Upside Target value, look for Nat Gas to run into some trouble as it nears $2.50 and fall back to retest the contract lows.
- Projected Daily Range: .120
- Projected Weekly Range: .191
- Projected Monthly Range: .460
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/26/12 @ 1650.20. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/26/12 @ 1660.50. Upside Targets 1682.50 – 1694.30.
- New high made on current move Tuesday @ 1672.30. Upside Target over 80% achieved.
- June Gold pushed through last week’s high on Tuesday before being sold off aggressively by HFT’s as it closed lower for the second consecutive day.
- With the daily close indicator pointing lower, look for gold to drop below $1650 on Wednesday to retest this week’s current low of 1645.10.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 59.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 92.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/20/12 @ 1.3179. Confirmation of a bottom on a close violation 04/20/12 @ 1.3219. Upside Targets = 1.3357 – 1.3418.
- Bearish VRCB-OVB combo generated on Tuesday after making new highs on current move @ 1.3287. Upside Target 85% achieved.
- The June Euro FX followed through on the 86% probability of trading through last Friday’s high before running into strong technical resistance at the daily Resistance Bollinger Band and broke lower as it made new lows for the week.
- Once Tuesday’s low is violated @ 1.3207, the Euro should continue lower towards 1.3086 down to 1.3053.
- Projected Daily Range: .0084
- Projected Weekly Range: .0193
- Projected Monthly Range: .0429
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/25/12 @ 1375.00.Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 1387.25. Upside Targets = 1404.75 – 1423.75.
- New highs made on current move Tuesday @ 1411.75. Upside Target over 110% achieved.
- The June S&P’s broke out decisively higher on Tuesday morning after a strong ISM manufacturing report propelled the market to its highest level in nearly 4 weeks before selling off to close below the daily mid-range.
- The S&P’s have ran nearly 60 points in the last 7 trading sessions without a single day’s low having been violated.
- Look for the market to stage a modest sell-off back below 1390.00 this week before continuing higher.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 38.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
