Oil looking for a pullback before moving higher

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 05/02/12

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/26/12 @ 119.92. Upside Targets = 121.71 – 122.71.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 118.77 or lower.
  • June Brent Crude traded back above $120 on Tuesday for a brief stint before settling back just above the day’s mid-range.
  • With Brent failing to break through last week’s high of 120.17 in a relatively tight trading range, look for the market to retest this week’s lows @ 118.73 on Wednesday.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.46
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.69
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.41

CLM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/25/12 @ 104.11. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/12/12 @ 104.10. Upside Targets = 106.21 – 108.73.
  • New highs made on current move Tuesday @ 106.43. Upside Target 80% achieved.
  • June WTI Crude broke through April’s high on Tuesday as it cracked through the $106 threshold for the first time in 5 weeks, closing above the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
  • Look for WTI to have a mild setback early on Wednesday before moving higher up to the weekly objective of 108.22 covering the full weekly range of 4.34.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.53
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.34
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.25

NGM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/24/12 @ 2.114. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.330 – 2.435
  • New highs made on current move Tuesday @ 2.385. Upside Target over 115% achieved.
  • June Nat Gas continued its run higher on Tuesday as it cracked through April’s high of 2.335 and closed above the daily Resistance Bollinger Band for the first time since late October of 2011.
  • Having achieved the current Upside Target value, look for Nat Gas to run into some trouble as it nears $2.50 and fall back to retest the contract lows.
  • Projected Daily Range: .120
  • Projected Weekly Range: .191
  • Projected Monthly Range: .460

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