KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/30/12 @ 118.77. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/26/12 @ 119.92. Upside Targets = 121.71 – 122.71.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 118.77 or lower.
- June Brent Crude spent most of the session trading lower on Monday as it lost ground month over month for the first time in 2012.
- If Brent closes below last Thursday’s low @ 118.78, look for Brent to head lower down to retest the April lows near our Q2 downside objective of 115.14.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.47
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.69
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.41
CLM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/25/12 @ 104.11. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/12/12 @ 104.10. Upside Targets = 105.29 – 106.21.
- New highs made on current move Monday @ 105.16. Upside Target 95% achieved.
- June WTI Crude rebounded from its earlier losses during the overnight session Monday as it closed nearly unchanged as it hovers just below the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
- WTI generated a VRCB month during April and will possible signal a Major Term TREND REVERSAL to bearish if May closes below April’s low of 101.22.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.65
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.34
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.25
NGM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/24/12 @ 2.114. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.261 – 2.332
- New highs made on current move Monday @ 2.320. Upside Target 98% achieved.
- June Nat Gas pushed higher on Monday as it violated last week’s high and closed at its highest level since April 3rd just below the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
- Nat Gas has put in an impressive run over the last week after the VRCB low put in @ 1.982 but still has poor fundamentals and a negative Intermediate Term technical portrait which adds to our case that the low should be retested again before the true bottom is established.
- Projected Daily Range: .145
- Projected Weekly Range: .191
- Projected Monthly Range: .460
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/26/12 @ 1650.20. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/26/12 @ 1660.50. Upside Targets 1682.50 – 1694.30.
- June Gold recovered from another head-fake lower on Monday after running stops below $1,650 before returning back to Friday’s close and closed above the Short Term trend line for the second consecutive day.
- Look for last week’s high @ 1668.40 to be violated on Tuesday as gold pushes higher towards our Intermediate Term objective of 1720.50.
- Projected Daily Range: 19.60
- Projected Weekly Range: 59.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 92.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/20/12 @ 1.3179. Confirmation of a bottom on a close violation 04/20/12 @ 1.3219. Upside Targets = 1.3357 – 1.3418.
- Inside WIMP generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1.3159. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1.3159 or lower.
- The June Euro FX traded within a very tight range on Monday as the market weighed in Spain’s recession and technical resistance just below 1.33.
- While last week’s high should initially be violated, the Euro remains a less than appetizing trade as most Intermediate Term indicators are flat to negative.
- Projected Daily Range: .0079
- Projected Weekly Range: .0193
- Projected Monthly Range: .0429
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/25/12 @ 1375.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 1387.25. Upside Target = 1404.75.
- Inside day generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1386.25. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1386.25 or lower.
- The June S&P’s traded mostly lower on Monday after failing to break through last week’s OVB high @ 1403.00 just below the upside targets
- Tuesday should follow through from Friday’s rally and trade to the upside targets value before hitting additional resistance @ 1407.
- Projected Daily Range: 15.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 38.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.25
