KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/20/12 @ 119.16. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/26/12 @ 119.92. Upside Targets = 121.71 – 122.71.
- Inside VRCB generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 118.77. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 118.77 or lower.
- June Brent Crude traded within a measly 89 cents range on Friday before realizing a small decline for the day closing just below $120.
- Brent has slowly worked its way higher over the last two weeks after its sharp decline from $125 and should continue its run up to $122.71 before running into some Short Term resistance.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.65
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.69
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.90
CLM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/25/12 @ 104.11. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/12/12 @ 104.10. Upside Targets = 105.29 – 106.21.
- Bullish OVB generated on Friday as it made new highs on current move @ 105.00.
- June Crude was able to make new highs for the week on Friday that point the direction for Monday trading to the upside as it looks to continue to come out of the base it has built between $101 and $105.
- Once April’s high is violated @ $105.50, WTI should continue to move on back to $108.73.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.68
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.34
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.76
NGM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/24/12 @ 2.114. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.261 – 2.330
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.106. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 2.106 or lower.
- June Nat Gas rallied back higher on Friday as it closed at its highest level in nearly three weeks despite having a lower high and lower low from Thursday’s range.
- Nat gas still has fundamental weakness to go along with poor technical indicators that suggest there is some unfinished business left in this market below $1.88.
- Projected Daily Range: .131
- Projected Weekly Range: .191
- Projected Monthly Range: .620
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/26/12 @ 1650.20. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/26/12 @ 1660.50. Upside Targets 1682.50 – 1694.30.
- New highs made on current move Friday @ 1668.40. Upside Target 75% achieved.
- June Gold continued its run higher on Friday as it closed above the Short Term trend line that has kept a lid on higher prices since the end of 2011.
- If gold can continue its move higher and trade above the April high of $1,685.40, look for gold to explode higher to challenge the current contract highs just shy of $1,800/oz.
- Projected Daily Range: 19.80
- Projected Weekly Range: 59.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 128.30
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/20/12 @ 1.3179. Confirmation of a bottom on a close violation on 04/20/12 @ 1.3219. Upside Targets = 1.3357 – 1.3418.
- Bullish OVB generated on Friday making new highs on current move @ 1.3273. Upside Target 75% achieved.
- The June Euro FX reversed course from the losses its sustained during early trading on Friday as it came back to make new highs for the week before the daily Resistance Bollinger Band put a lid on the rally.
- The Euro should break through last week’s high before it has a setback down to 1.3111.
- Projected Daily Range: .0081
- Projected Weekly Range: .0193
- Projected Monthly Range: .0503
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/25/12 @ 1375.00.Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 1387.25. Upside Target = 1404.75.
- New highs made on current move Friday @ 1403.00. Upside Target 98% achieved.
- The June S&P’s moved higher again on Friday as they traded to within just a few points of our upside target and daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
- With the S&P’s rally of nearly 50 points from the low on Monday, a slight setback early this week seems warranted followed by another move higher to retest the 2012 highs @ 1419.75.
- Projected Daily Range: 17.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 38.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 75.00
