Oil looks for follow-through buying, nat gas still weak

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 04/30/12

Oil Pumpjack

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/20/12 @ 119.16. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/26/12 @ 119.92. Upside Targets = 121.71 – 122.71.
  • Inside VRCB generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 118.77. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 118.77 or lower.
  • June Brent Crude traded within a measly 89 cents range on Friday before realizing a small decline for the day closing just below $120.
  • Brent has slowly worked its way higher over the last two weeks after its sharp decline from $125 and should continue its run up to $122.71 before running into some Short Term resistance.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.65
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.69
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.90

CLM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/25/12 @ 104.11. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/12/12 @ 104.10. Upside Targets = 105.29 – 106.21.
  • Bullish OVB generated on Friday as it made new highs on current move @ 105.00.
  • June Crude was able to make new highs for the week on Friday that point the direction for Monday trading to the upside as it looks to continue to come out of the base it has built between $101 and $105.
  • Once April’s high is violated @ $105.50, WTI should continue to move on back to $108.73.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.68
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.34
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.76

NGM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/24/12 @ 2.114. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.261 – 2.330
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.106. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 2.106 or lower.
  • June Nat Gas rallied back higher on Friday as it closed at its highest level in nearly three weeks despite having a lower high and lower low from Thursday’s range.
  • Nat gas still has fundamental weakness to go along with poor technical indicators that suggest there is some unfinished business left in this market below $1.88.
  • Projected Daily Range: .131
  • Projected Weekly Range: .191
  • Projected Monthly Range: .620

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