Natural gas surplus despite fewer rigs

Natural gas rig counts may have hit a 10-year low but does that really mean that gas production will fall significantly enough to avoid a storage crisis? Reuters News reported that, “the number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States fell by 18 this week to 613, data from oil services firm Baker Hughes showed on Friday.  Horizontal rigs— the type most often used to extract oil or gas from shale — fell by 16 to 1,139. Oil rigs fell by 9 to 1,328.”

Yet the Energy Information Administration says that when it comes to gas if you are getting liquids you are less likely to cut back production. The EIA says that combined marketed natural gas production from the top five natural gas producing states of Texas, Louisiana, Wyoming, Oklahoma, and Colorado actually increased by about 7.5% in 2011, although their share of total U.S. natural gas output fell slightly to about 65% they show that marketed natural gas production from these states in 2011 totaled 15.7 trillion cubic feet (Tcf).

The EIA says that the drop in the top states combined share of total U.S. production reflects increased contributions from other states, particularly those in which operators significantly expanded development of shale gas formations. Shale gas production from states such as Pennsylvania helped boost overall U.S. natural gas output by almost 8% in 2011.

Due primarily to drilling programs in the Marcellus shale formation, Pennsylvania's marketed natural gas production in 2011 more than doubled to nearly 1.3 Tcf, according to preliminary estimates from Pennsylvania's Department of Environmental Protection.  Arkansas has also seen strong growth in its marketed natural gas production, with output more than tripling since 2007 due mainly to increased production in the Fayetteville shale play.

The EIA says that Alaska is the country's second leading natural gas producer in terms of gross withdrawals, but most of the state's production is not brought to market, as production volumes far exceed local demand and there is insufficient pipeline capacity to transport the gas to distant markets. Most of Alaska's natural gas not brought to market is re-injected into existing oil fields to provide sufficient pressure to maintain oil production rates.

The EIA highlights from the top marketed natural gas producing states in 2011:

Texas: Natural gas production increased 4.5% from the year before to the highest level since 1980, due in part to growing output from the Eagle Ford shale formation where drillers who are aggressively pursuing high-value liquid hydrocarbons are also producing growing amounts of natural gas. 

Louisiana: Natural gas production increased 38% as the Haynesville shale gas formation in the northwest part of the state was one of the biggest shale gas producing plays in the United States.

Wyoming: Natural gas production fell 5.6% to the lowest level since 2007, as lower natural gas prices made coal bed methane gas that accounts for almost two-thirds of the state's natural gas production less profitable because high-priced gas liquids aren't normally found in coal seams.

Oklahoma: Natural gas production increased 3.9% to the second highest annual output since 1994 due to higher output in the Woodford shale play.

Colorado: Natural gas production grew about 1.4% as output increased for the 25th year in a row to break another record output high. The Niobrara shale play in the northeast corner of the state helped raise Colorado's natural gas production.

Reuters News reported that U.S. exports of refined petroleum products beat imports by more than a million barrels per day in February as high prices crimped the domestic gasoline demand while the country's refiners shipped record volumes of diesel abroad, government data showed. The United States exported a net 1.014 million bpd of refined fuel in February, a whopping 1,778% increase from a year earlier, the EIA said in its monthly petroleum supply report.  Distillate fuel oil exports of 785,000 bpd in February were the highest for the month on records going back to 1945.EIA changed the method it used to calculate gasoline exports in August last year. 

 

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About the Author
Phil Flynn

Phil Flynn

Phil Flynn is senior energy analyst at The PRICE Futures Group and a Fox Business Network contributor. He is one of the world's leading market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets. His precise and timely forecasts have come to be in great demand by industry and media worldwide and his impressive career goes back almost three decades, gaining attention with his market calls and energetic personality as writer of The Energy Report. You can contact Phil by phone at (888) 264-5665 or by email at pflynn@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

 

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.


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