S&P 500 price target will reassert intermediate uptrend

Further short-term gains were posted by major indexes Thursday

Stock index, chart, technical analysis Stock index, chart, technical analysis

Market Snapshot for session ending 4-26-12:



Day Change


S&P 500 Index




Dow Jones Industrials




NASDAQ Composite




Value Line Arithmetic Index




Minor Cycle (Short-term trend lasting days to a few weeks) Negative / Neutral

Intermediate Cycle (Medium trend lasting weeks to several months) Neutral / Negative

Major Cycle (Long-term trend lasting several months to years) Positive / Neutral

Market Overview – What We Know:

  • Further short-term gains were posted by major indexes Thursday.
  • MAAD Daily ratio pulled back to .82 and remains modestly “Oversold.” Readings toward 1.00 and “Neutral” would be good enough to suggest point for renewed near-term vulnerability.
  • Selling below lower edge of 10-Week Price Channel at 1351.61—S&P 500 (through 4/27) would be first such weakness below weekly price channel since last fall.
  • NYSE trading volume declined 5% Thursday while price of average share on NYSE fell 1 cent to $58.02. Highest recent average price level occurred March 15 at $61.48.
  • S&P 500 remains locked between recent short-term high at 1422.38 hit on April 2 and reaction low to 1357.38 hit on April 10.
  • Daily MAAD was positive Thursday by 13 to 6. Most recent Daily MAAD peak was made March 20.
  • Daily CPFL was positive Thursday by 3.43 to 1, but remains below April 9 short-term high. Both Daily and Weekly CPFL remain substantially below indicator resistance high put in place February 2011.

Market Overview – What We Think:

  • Until April 10 intraday low at 1357.38 is terminated on downside and near-term “Oversold” conditions are eliminated, we cannot rule out possibility further rebounding could develop.
  • Readings from MAAD Daily Ratio toward 1.00 and “Neutral” could coincide with setup point for resumption of near-term selling.
  • Big question remains whether or not index pricing will be able to better recent highs (1422.38--S&P 500 / April 2). Ongoing failure could ultimately mean Intermediate Cycle high has been put in place and more weakness could follow. New highs would reassert uptrend in effect since last October.
  • Best guess is that any near-term rebounding will fade this side of April 2 highs and that April 10 lows (1357.38 / S&P 500) will be breached on downside.
  • More short-term selling could seriously challenge lower edge of 10-Week Price Channels (1351.61 / S&P 500) while threatening to turn larger Intermediate Cycle negative for first time since last fall.

Click charts to enlarge

stock index, chart, technical, analysis, cumulative volume

stock index, chart, technical, analysis, cumulative volume


Index Daily / Weekly / Monthly Stops Weekly Monthly








S&P 500 Index

BUY 1389.17

BUY 1388.46

BUY 1387.93

BUY 1387.85

BUY 1387.63

SELL 1351.61

SELL 1178.00

Dow Jones Industrials

SELL 12852.64

SELL 12853.84

SELL 12878.48

SELL 12881.24

SELL 12898.52

SELL 12828.63

SELL 11223.60

NASDAQ Composite

BUY 3053.99

BUY 3050.89

BUY 3047.67

BUY 3048.45

BUY 3045.37

SELL 2930.56

SELL 2492.41

Value Line Index

BUY 2999.27

BUY 2998.48

BUY 2996.08

BUY 2996.70

BUY 2996.99

SELL 2966.97

SELL 2564.71

Note: Stop levels, a function of the extant trend, are based on the trailing moving average price channels for the Highs or the Lows of an index. Whether or not a specific index is suggesting a “Buy” or Sell” is determined by whether or not index prices are above or below the current channel Stop levels. Stop levels should only be used as an entry or exit guide and in conjunction with other market entry and exit strategies.

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