Natural gas drops on storage injection; oil mixed today

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 04/27/12

Nat gas flame

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/20/12 @ 119.16. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/26/12 @ 119.92. Upside Targets = 121.71 – 122.71.
  • June Brent Crude followed through on Wednesday’s bull OVB as it made new 8 day highs after trading back above $120.
  • Look for Brent to settle back on Friday to ease the buying pressure as it sets up for a possible extended Intermediate Term run towards new contract highs.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.43
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.13
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.90

CLM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/25/12 @ 104.11. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/12/12 @ 104.10. Upside Targets = 105.29 – 106.21.
  • VRCB generated on Thursday after making new highs for the week @ 104.92.
  • June WTI Crude edged higher on Thursday as it ran into strong resistance just below $105 and the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
  • Look for WTI to trade mixed to slightly higher on Friday as it tries to run buy stops above $105.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.68
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.52
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.76

NGM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/24/12 @ 2.114. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.261 – 2.330
  • Bearish ERVB generated on Thursday after making new 3 week highs @ 2.295. Upside Target 90% achieved.
  • June Nat Gas reversed course on Thursday as another storage injection brought the trade back into bearish position heading into the weekend.
  • Nat Gas traded to the mid-range of our upside objectives and then moved sharply lower as the market looks ready to break back to 1.854. Dismiss any report you saw yesterday about Nat Gas going higher, you haven’t seen the bottom and this market is not going up any time soon.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0120
  • Projected Weekly Range: .143
  • Projected Monthly Range: .620

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