KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/20/12 @ 119.16. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/26/12 @ 119.92. Upside Targets = 121.71 – 122.71.
- June Brent Crude followed through on Wednesday’s bull OVB as it made new 8 day highs after trading back above $120.
- Look for Brent to settle back on Friday to ease the buying pressure as it sets up for a possible extended Intermediate Term run towards new contract highs.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.43
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.13
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.90
CLM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/25/12 @ 104.11. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/12/12 @ 104.10. Upside Targets = 105.29 – 106.21.
- VRCB generated on Thursday after making new highs for the week @ 104.92.
- June WTI Crude edged higher on Thursday as it ran into strong resistance just below $105 and the daily Resistance Bollinger Band.
- Look for WTI to trade mixed to slightly higher on Friday as it tries to run buy stops above $105.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.68
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.52
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.76
NGM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/24/12 @ 2.114. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 2.170. Upside Targets = 2.261 – 2.330
- Bearish ERVB generated on Thursday after making new 3 week highs @ 2.295. Upside Target 90% achieved.
- June Nat Gas reversed course on Thursday as another storage injection brought the trade back into bearish position heading into the weekend.
- Nat Gas traded to the mid-range of our upside objectives and then moved sharply lower as the market looks ready to break back to 1.854. Dismiss any report you saw yesterday about Nat Gas going higher, you haven’t seen the bottom and this market is not going up any time soon.
- Projected Daily Range: .0120
- Projected Weekly Range: .143
- Projected Monthly Range: .620
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/26/12 @ 1650.20. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/26/12 @ 1660.50. Upside Targets 1682.50 – 1694.30.
- June Gold followed through on Wednesday’s bullish close as it not only made new highs for the week but also violated last week’s high making this week an OVB.
- Look for Gold to now set up for a possible strong extended move higher if the market can close above $1,665/oz. on Friday.
- Projected Daily Range: 19.20
- Projected Weekly Range: 49.90
- Projected Monthly Range: 128.30
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/20/12 @ 1.3179. Confirmation of a bottom on a close violation 04/20/12 @ 1.3219. Upside Targets = 1.3357 – 1.3418.
- New highs made on current move Thursday @ 1.3266. Upside Target 70% achieved.
- The June Euro FX continued slightly higher on Thursday as the market was barely able to close above its daily mid-range.
- The Euro has been less than an exciting market to trade over the last month and the current rate of change has switched to bearish, indicating that the recent run-up in value may be nearing its end as the market turns back lower towards 1.3079.
- Projected Daily Range: .0068
- Projected Weekly Range: .0253
- Projected Monthly Range: .0503
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/25/12 @ 1375.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/25/12 @ 1387.25. Upside Target = 1404.75.
- New highs made on current move Thursday @ 1398.25. Upside Target 90% achieved.
- The June S&P’s traded to their highest level in three weeks on Thursday as hopes for extended fed stimulus outweighed the higher jobless rate.
- The S&P’s will most likely settle a bit lower on Friday as the technical resistance of the 1400 threshold as well as the market being overbought intra week may push it back below 1390.
- Projected Daily Range: 15.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 37.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 75.00
