KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/20/12 @ 119.16. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 04/02/12 @ 125.43. Downside Targets = 120.81.
- VRCB generated on Tuesday.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 119.16 or higher.
- June Brent Crude traded within a narrow range on Tuesday as it worked its way slightly lower back towards Monday’s mid-range.
- Brent still is looking strong throughout this consolidation period and if new highs are made for the week on Wednesday, look for Brent to take off back above $120.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.54
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.13
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.90
CLM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/16/12 @ 102.85. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/12/12 @ 104.10. Upside Targets = 105.29 – 106.21.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 104.11.
- June WTI Crude advanced on Tuesday while narrowly avoiding the VRCB label as it remains range bound throughout this consolidation period.
- Like Brent, once WTI is able to make a move toward new weekly highs, it should blow through last week’s high followed by the April high at 105.99.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.74
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.52
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.76
NGM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/24/12 @ 2.114. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 03/22/12 @ 2.372. Downside Targets = 2.161 – 1.860 – 1.799
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 2.114 or higher.
- June Nat Gas declined on Tuesday as buyers seemed unimpressed by Monday’s rally and it looks to continue its slide lower.
- As mentioned multiple times in our morning reports, all two day rallies should be sold in strong bear markets.
- Projected Daily Range: .067
- Projected Weekly Range: .143
- Projected Monthly Range: .620
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/16/12 @ 1649.60. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 04/18/12 @ 1639.60. Downside Targets 1609.50 – 1595.10.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1650.20. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1650.20 or higher.
- June Gold reversed its daily close indicator back to bullish for the first time in two weeks on Tuesday as the market left a daily close gap from Monday on its way higher.
- The true test for Gold will be how it reacts as it makes new highs for the week and runs into resistance at last week’s high.
- Projected Daily Range: 19.80
- Projected Weekly Range: 49.90
- Projected Monthly Range: 128.30
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/20/12 @ 1.3179. Confirmation of a bottom on a close violation 04/20/12 @ 1.3219. Upside Targets = 1.3357 – 1.3418.
- VRCB generated on Tuesday.
- The June Euro FX remained relatively quiet on Tuesday but still managed to advance on the day after a very thin day of trading.
- There still is an 86% probability that last week’s high is violated @ 1.3232 before its low after fulfilling the 90% chance that last week’s close @ 1.3219 would trade this week.
- Projected Daily Range: .0094
- Projected Weekly Range: .0253
- Projected Monthly Range: .0503
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/23/12 @ 1365.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 04/23/12 @ 1362.75. Downside Target = 1345.50
- Inside day generated Tuesday. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a range violation @ 1375.00. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bullish with a close violation @ 1375.00 or higher.
- The June S&P’s tried to erase Monday’s losses on Tuesday despite trading within a very tight range.
- An after-market announcement of Apple’s earnings initially helped to lead the market higher into Wednesday and with any positive economic news the S&P’s should once again trade back higher toward 1397.25
- Projected Daily Range: 14.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 37.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 75.00
