Oil and gold likely to test last week’s highs

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 04/25/12

Oil barrels

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/20/12 @ 119.16. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 04/02/12 @ 125.43. Downside Targets = 120.81.
  • VRCB generated on Tuesday.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 119.16 or higher.
  • June Brent Crude traded within a narrow range on Tuesday as it worked its way slightly lower back towards Monday’s mid-range.
  • Brent still is looking strong throughout this consolidation period and if new highs are made for the week on Wednesday, look for Brent to take off back above $120.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.54
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.13
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.90

CLM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/16/12 @ 102.85. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/12/12 @ 104.10. Upside Targets = 105.29 – 106.21.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 104.11.
  • June WTI Crude advanced on Tuesday while narrowly avoiding the VRCB label as it remains range bound throughout this consolidation period.
  • Like Brent, once WTI is able to make a move toward new weekly highs, it should blow through last week’s high followed by the April high at 105.99.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.74
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.52
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.76

NGM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/24/12 @ 2.114. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 03/22/12 @ 2.372. Downside Targets = 2.161 – 1.860 – 1.799
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 2.114 or higher.
  • June Nat Gas declined on Tuesday as buyers seemed unimpressed by Monday’s rally and it looks to continue its slide lower.
  • As mentioned multiple times in our morning reports, all two day rallies should be sold in strong bear markets.
  • Projected Daily Range: .067
  • Projected Weekly Range: .143
  • Projected Monthly Range: .620

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