Natural gas remains weakest commodity; gold trending lower

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 04/24/12

Natural gas furnace

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/20/12 @ 119.16. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 04/02/12 @ 125.43. Downside Targets = 120.81.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 119.16 or higher.
  • June Brent Crude erased its earlier losses on Monday as it closed virtually unchanged on the day after once being down $1.50, pointing the close indicator higher.
  • If Brent is able to follow through on Monday’s rally, look for last Friday’s high to be violated and it to trade to 121.34.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.66
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.13
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.90

CLM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/16/12 @ 102.85. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 04/12/12 @ 104.10. Upside Targets = 105.29 – 106.21.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 102.62 or lower.
  • June WTI Crude moved lower on Monday as it made new eight-day lows before rallying to close above the day’s mid-range.
  • WTI has slowly worked its way higher over the last two weeks while generating a Weekly Double VRCB Bar in sideways trading as the market is due to an increase in volatility throughout the next few days.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.81
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.52
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.76

NGM12: ROLL

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/22/12 @ 2.392. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/22/12 @ 2.372. Downside Targets = 2.161 – 1.860 – 1.799
  • C > HOLB generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 2.114. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 2.114 or higher.
  • June Nat Gas moved sharply higher on Monday as it saw its largest advance in two months because of an unseasonable snow storm in the northeast.
  • It is important to remember that Natural Gas is one of if not the weakest commodities traded and that this current rally must be sold on the first signal.  Current WTI/Nat Gas Ratio 49 : 1.
  • Projected Daily Range: .070
  • Projected Weekly Range: .143
  • Projected Monthly Range: .620

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