KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/20/12 @ 119.16. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 04/02/12 @ 125.43. Downside Targets = 120.81.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 119.16 or higher.
- June Brent Crude erased its earlier losses on Monday as it closed virtually unchanged on the day after once being down $1.50, pointing the close indicator higher.
- If Brent is able to follow through on Monday’s rally, look for last Friday’s high to be violated and it to trade to 121.34.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.66
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.13
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.90
CLM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/16/12 @ 102.85. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 04/12/12 @ 104.10. Upside Targets = 105.29 – 106.21.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 102.62 or lower.
- June WTI Crude moved lower on Monday as it made new eight-day lows before rallying to close above the day’s mid-range.
- WTI has slowly worked its way higher over the last two weeks while generating a Weekly Double VRCB Bar in sideways trading as the market is due to an increase in volatility throughout the next few days.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.81
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.52
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.76
NGM12: ROLL
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/22/12 @ 2.392. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/22/12 @ 2.372. Downside Targets = 2.161 – 1.860 – 1.799
- C > HOLB generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 2.114. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 2.114 or higher.
- June Nat Gas moved sharply higher on Monday as it saw its largest advance in two months because of an unseasonable snow storm in the northeast.
- It is important to remember that Natural Gas is one of if not the weakest commodities traded and that this current rally must be sold on the first signal. Current WTI/Nat Gas Ratio 49 : 1.
- Projected Daily Range: .070
- Projected Weekly Range: .143
- Projected Monthly Range: .620
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/16/12 @ 1649.60. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 04/18/12 @ 1639.60. Downside Targets 1609.50 – 1595.10.
- New low made on current move Monday @ 1623.60. Downside Target 80% achieved.
- June Gold made new two-week lows Monday as it recorded its seventh consecutive day of lower highs and closed just below the day’s mid-range.
- Having violated last week’s VRCB low, gold should continue lower throughout the week and approach the $1600/oz. level.
- Projected Daily Range: 21.40
- Projected Weekly Range: 49.90
- Projected Monthly Range: 128.30
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/20/12 @ 1.3179. Confirmation of a bottom on a close violation 04/20/12 @ 1.3219. Upside Targets = 1.3357 – 1.3418.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1.3106. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1.3106 or lower.
- The June Euro FX contract moved lower on Monday after the Dutch parliament resigned due to their inability to pass a budget in accordance to the new Euro Zone standards.
- The Euro continues to be very sporadic in its direction of price action as the headlines dominate trading and our recommendation to stay away until the dust settles remains as we think there are bigger fish to fry.
- Projected Daily Range: .0102
- Projected Weekly Range: .0253
- Projected Monthly Range: .0503
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/23/12 @ 1365.25.Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 04/23/12 @ 1362.75. Downside Target = 1345.50
- The June S&P’s broke through last week’s low @ 1359.25 on Monday before finding support just above the April lows and the daily Support Bollinger Band.
- The S&P’s early morning declines failed to break the 1352.50 level and was followed by an all-day effort to bring the market back higher and should continue back towards 1400.
- Projected Daily Range: 19.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 37.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 75.00
