KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 122.29 on 04/05/12. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 125.43 on 04/02/12. Downside Targets = 120.81.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 119.16. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 119.16 or higher.
- June Brent Crude tried to move higher on Thursday but failed just below the resistance price we listed in Thursday’s report and closed back down in the lower 25% of the day’s trading range.
- Look for the market to be light Friday after having achieved the weekly objective to the tick and remain relatively range bound heading into the weekend.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.66
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.30 CURRENT WEEKLY RANGE 4.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.90
CLM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/16/12 @ 102.85. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 04/12/12 @ 104.10. Downside Targets = 100.69
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 102.62 or lower.
- June WTI Crude moved lower on Thursday in a tight trading range as it made new lows for the week @ 102.13.
- With no major market moving reports due on Friday, look for WTI to remain mostly silent as it tries to work its way lower to end the week.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.08
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.52
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.76
NGK12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/22/12 @ 2.392. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/22/12 @ 2.372. Downside Targets = 2.161 – 1.860
- New 10 year lows made on Thursday @ 1.902. Downside Target 90% achieved.
- May Nat Gas broke lower again on Thursday as another storage injection soured any hopes of relief from short selling.
- Once NG breaks through 1.880, it will have made new 11 year lows and should continue onwards toward our Major Term downside objective of 1.799.
- Projected Daily Range: .062
- Projected Weekly Range: .173
- Projected Monthly Range: .620
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top on a range violation 04/16/12 @ 1649.60. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 04/18/12 @ 1639.60. Downside Targets 1609.50 – 1595.10.
- New weekly lows made on current move Thursday @ 1631.20. Downside Target 70% achieved.
- June Gold was able to squeak out a slight gain on Thursday despite making new weekly lows and closing below its daily mid-range.
- Gold looks to be working on a VRCB week and once this week’s low is violated @ $1,631.20 the market should accelerate lower below $1,600 to our Short Term objective of $1,595.10.
- Projected Daily Range: 21.30
- Projected Weekly Range: 57.90
- Projected Monthly Range: 128.30
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top on a range violation on 04/16/12 @ 1.3073. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 04/16/12 @ 1.3036. Downside Targets 1.2895.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.3179. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.3179 or higher.
- The June Euro traded mostly to the upside on Thursday but still only managed to advance 6 ticks as the market remains undecided of its current direction.
- The Euro has closed within 13 ticks of the same price every day this week as the cluster of closes points to a possible upcoming breakout which will be determined by a violation of this week’s high @ 1.3178 or low @ 1.3000.
- Projected Daily Range: .0089
- Projected Weekly Range: .0241
- Projected Monthly Range: .0503
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/12/12 @ 1381.00.Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 04/12/12 @ 1386.00. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1447.75.
- Bearish OVB generated on Thursday after making new highs for the week @ 1390.00.
- The June S&P’s rallied over 10 points in overnight trading Wednesday but fell sharply throughout the pit session Thursday as the market continues it’s back and forth price action.
- Look for an early rally on Friday followed by a moderate sell off with the market closing back below 1375.00 going into the weekend.
- Projected Daily Range: 21.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 38.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 75.00
