Natural gas breaks lower, little support before $1.79

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 04/18/12

METALS

GCM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top on 04/16/12 with a range violation @ 1649.60. Confirmation of a bottom on 04/10/2012 with a close violation @ 1660.70. Upside Targets 1667.10 – 1699.10
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 1649.60 or lower.
  • June Gold was able to make new lows for the week but rebounded strongly in midday trading as it was able to close above its daily mid-range and points the daily close indicator north.
  • If Monday’s high is violated, look for Gold to make a push back towards the Intermediate Term resistance trend line @ 1672.50. However, with a close below 1649.60 our weekly downside targets will come in to play @ 1609.50 – 1600.50.
  • Projected Daily Range: 23.40
  • Projected Weekly Range: 57.90
  • Projected Monthly Range: 128.30

CURRENCIES

ECM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top on a range violation on 04/16/12 @ 1.3073. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 04/16/12 @ 1.3036. Downside Targets = 1.2895.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.3179. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.3179 or higher.
  • The June Euro remained virtually flat on Tuesday as the market closed nearly dead on its mid-range after failing to breach 1.32.
  • Staying with our recommendation from Monday’s report, the Euro remains a risky play with technical indicators pointing slightly negative and a highly volatile market culture. Downside Targets @ 1.2895 – 1.2826.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0123
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0241
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0503

INDEXES

ESM12:  

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom on 04/12/12 with a range violation @ 1381.00.Confirmation of a bottom on 04/12/2012 with a close violation @ 1386.00. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1447.75.
  • Bullish EROVB generated on Tuesday making new highs on current move @ 1388.75. Upside Target 75% achieved.
  • The June S&P’s exploded higher in overnight trading and continued the bullish run throughout the daily pit session eventually violating last week’s high @ 1388.50.
  • Nothing looks to be able to stop the S&P’s as upbeat earnings are leading the market higher back above 1400.
  • Projected Daily Range: 23.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 38.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 75.00
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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