Natural gas breaks lower, little support before $1.79

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 04/18/12

Natural gas meter

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar

VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 122.29 on 04/05/12. Confirmation of a close violation @ 125.43 on 04/02/12. Downside Targets = 120.81.
  • VRCB generated on Tuesday after making new 8 week lows @ 117.98. Downside Target 120% achieved.
  • June Brent Crude was able to settle higher on Tuesday despite showing bearish divergent price action and trading half of its daily range below the Support Bollinger Band.
  • If Brent is able to trade above Tuesday’s high it could sustain a rally back to last week’s close, however, if it breaks lower the weekly downside objective @ 116.70.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.84
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.30
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.90

CURRENT SPREAD BETWEEN WTI AND BRENT — 13.40

CLM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/16/12 @ 102.85. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 04/12/12 @ 104.10. Upside Targets = 106.21 – 108.73.
  • June WTI Crude exploded higher on “turnaround Tuesday” as it closed at its highest level in two weeks before stopping at 105.50.
  • With a close above 104.70, look for WTI to continue higher towards the weekly upside target of 106.80.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.74
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.52
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.76

CURRENT RATIO BETWEEN WTI AND NAT GAS — 54 : 1

NGK12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/22/12 @ 2.392. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/22/12 @ 2.372. Downside Targets = 1.860 – 1799.
  • New 2012 lows made on Tuesday @ 1.947. Downside Targets 87% achieved.
  • May Nat Gas broke lower on Tuesday as the mild rally on Monday proved to be nothing more than false hope for a battered market.
  • Nothing looks to be able to stop Nat Gas as its heads towards our Major Term target of 1.799 before any true support will come into play.
  • Projected Daily Range: .054
  • Projected Weekly Range: .173
  • Projected Monthly Range: .620

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