KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 122.29 on 04/05/12. Confirmation of a top with close violation @ 125.43 on 04/02/2012. Downside Targets = 120.81.
- New 7 1/2 week lows made on Monday @ 118.20. Downside Target over 110% achieved.
- June Brent Crude dropped sharply lower to begin the week as it closed below the daily Support Bollinger Band at its lowest level since mid-February.
- Once Monday’s low is violated, look for Brent to continue lower as it slide toward our downside weekly projection of 116.70.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.26
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.90
CLM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/16/12 @ 102.85. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 04/12/12 @ 104.10. Upside Targets = 105.29 – 106.21.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 102.85 or lower.
- June WTI Crude erased its earlier losses on Monday as it edged higher and closed the spread between itself and Brent to under $15.
- Unless WTI can break through last week’s high of 104.69, intraday rallies should continue to be sold as the market should try to crack the $100 level during the next few weeks and trade lower to our downside target @ 98.70.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.55
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.52
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.76
NGK12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/22/12 @ 2.392. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/22/12 @ 2.372. Downside Targets = 2.161 – 1.860
- C > HOLB. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 2.031. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 2.031 or higher.
- May Nat Gas moved higher on Monday after Friday’s VRCB looks to try and provide some Short Term support in this battered market.
- We believe that Nat Gas is very close to its Major Term bottom and although we think it will make one more move below $2.00, the bottom is not too far in this market.
- Projected Daily Range: .064
- Projected Weekly Range: .173
- Projected Monthly Range: .620
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top on 04/16/12 with a range violation @ 1649.60. Confirmation of a bottom on 04/10/12 with a close violation @ 1660.70. Upside Targets 1667.10 – 1699.10
- June Gold followed through on last week’s call for the market to break lower should it not be able to close above 1682.70.
- It should continue lower until it reaches it key test of last week’s low @1632.50, once it is violated it should extend its downward move to 1609.50.
- Projected Daily Range: 25.80
- Projected Weekly Range: 57.90
- Projected Monthly Range: 128.30
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top on a range violation on 04/16/12 @ 1.3073. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 04/16/12 @ 1.3036. Downside Targets 1.2895.
- Standard confirmation of a top @ 1.3073. Conservative confirmation of a top @ 1.3036. STR3MO = 1.2895.
- The June Euro erased all of its earlier losses during the morning pit session Monday as it reversed course and generated a Parrish Hicks Proprietary BUY signal @ 1.3139.
- The Euro has been very skittish over the last five weeks, unable to make a decisive move up or down as it seems to just run the current stops and reverse course.
- Our recommendation is to tread lightly with the Euro as debt crises and uncertainty make this trade suspect to large swings in volatility.
- Projected Daily Range: .0133
- Projected Weekly Range: .0241
- Projected Monthly Range: .0503
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom on 04/12/2012 with a range violation @ 1381.00.Confirmation of a bottom on 04/12/2012 with a close violation @ 1386.00. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1447.75.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1360.25. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1360.25 or lower.
- The June S&P’s moved lower on Monday, following through on Friday’s decline as the Short Term correction looks to carry on.
- The S&P’s should trade down to 1335.75 this week if Monday’s low is violated.
- Projected Daily Range: 20.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 38.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 75.00
