Brent crude slide not over, target at $116

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 04/17/12

Bear chart

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 122.29 on 04/05/12. Confirmation of a top with close violation @ 125.43 on 04/02/2012. Downside Targets = 120.81.
  • New 7 1/2 week lows made on Monday @ 118.20. Downside Target over 110% achieved.
  • June Brent Crude dropped sharply lower to begin the week as it closed below the daily Support Bollinger Band at its lowest level since mid-February.
  • Once Monday’s low is violated, look for Brent to continue lower as it slide toward our downside weekly projection of 116.70.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.26
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.30
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.90

CLM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 04/16/12 @ 102.85. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 04/12/12 @ 104.10. Upside Targets = 105.29 – 106.21.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 102.85 or lower.
  • June WTI Crude erased its earlier losses on Monday as it edged higher and closed the spread between itself and Brent to under $15.
  • Unless WTI can break through last week’s high of 104.69, intraday rallies should continue to be sold as the market should try to crack the $100 level during the next few weeks and trade lower to our downside target @ 98.70.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.55
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.52
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.76

NGK12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/22/12 @ 2.392. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/22/12 @ 2.372. Downside Targets = 2.161 – 1.860
  • C > HOLB. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 2.031. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 2.031 or higher.
  • May Nat Gas moved higher on Monday after Friday’s VRCB looks to try and provide some Short Term support in this battered market.
  • We believe that Nat Gas is very close to its Major Term bottom and although we think it will make one more move below $2.00, the bottom is not too far in this market.
  • Projected Daily Range: .064
  • Projected Weekly Range: .173
  • Projected Monthly Range: .620

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