Oil may break under $100 if Thursday’s low violated

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 04/16/12

METALS

GCM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom on 04/09/12 with a range violation @ 1649.60. Confirmation of a bottom on 04/10/12 with a close violation @ 1660.70. Upside Targets 1667.10 – 1699.10
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1649.60. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1649.60 or lower.
  • June Gold dropped on Friday as the market was unable to break through our technical resistance price of 1682.70.
  • If you followed last Thursday’s report, we reiterated that this market should be sold unless it can close above 1682.70.
  • Look for this market to continue to fall and trade to 1609.50.
  • Projected Daily Range: 23.40
  • Projected Weekly Range: 57.90
  • Projected Monthly Range: 128.30

CURRENCIES

ECM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom on a range violation on 04/11/12 @ 1.3151. Confirmation of a bottom on a close violation 04/12/12 @ 1.3200. Upside Targets 1.3377 – 1.3560.
  • C < LOHB. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1.3073. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1.3073 or lower.
  • The June Euro broke sharply lower on Friday as it closed within one tick of its lowest daily close of the week.
  • Look for the Euro to continue its fall lower and crack the 1.30 level as it sets its sights at 1.2895.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0112
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0241
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0503

INDEXES

ESM12:  

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom on 04/12/12 with a range violation @ 1381.00.Confirmation of a bottom on 04/12/12 with a close violation @ 1386.00. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1447.75.
  • Bearish AOVB generated on Friday after making new highs for the week @ 1388.50.
  • The June S&P’s reacted exactly as predicted in last Thursday’s report to end last week, trading through our weekly upside objective of 1388.00 before covering long positions and heading back lower.
  • The S&P’s should take a dive at last week’s lows @ 1352.50 before being able to find any support a bit lower @ 1338.00.
  • Projected Daily Range: 20.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 38.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 75.00
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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