KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 122.29 on 04/05/12. Confirmation of a top on a close violation @ 125.43 on 04/02/12. Downside Targets = 120.81-118.83.
- Inside VRCB generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 121.76. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 121.76 or higher.
- June Brent Crude inched lower on Friday as most traders seemed to take a long weekend as volume dropped by over 30%.
- With a violation below Friday’s low, Brent should head lower and possibly take out last week’s low @ 118.71 on its way towards our Q2 downside target of 115.12.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.93
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.90
CLM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/12/12 @ 103.14. Confirmation of a top with a close on 04/12/12 @ 103.64. Upside Targets = 105.29 – 106.21.
- Inside VRCB generated Friday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 102.85. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 102.85 or lower.
- June WTI Crude settled back lower on Friday as the short covering rally earlier in the week appeared to be over and WTI looks to head lower.
- Once Thursday’s low is violated @ 102.85, look for WTI to try and break through $100 and trade down to 98.70.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.77
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.52
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.76
NGK12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/22/12 @ 2.392. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/22/12 @ 2.372. Downside Targets = 2.161 – 1.860
- VRCB generated on Friday after making new contract lows @ 1.959. Downside Target over 84% achieved.
- May Nat Gas settled down only two ticks Friday after generating a VRCB as the market appears to be trying to find a Short Term bottom.
- IF Thursday’s high is broken at 2.070, look for Nat Gas to make a Short Term run higher up to 2.235.
- Projected Daily Range: .072
- Projected Weekly Range: .173
- Projected Monthly Range: .620
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom on 04/09/12 with a range violation @ 1649.60. Confirmation of a bottom on 04/10/12 with a close violation @ 1660.70. Upside Targets 1667.10 – 1699.10
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1649.60. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1649.60 or lower.
- June Gold dropped on Friday as the market was unable to break through our technical resistance price of 1682.70.
- If you followed last Thursday’s report, we reiterated that this market should be sold unless it can close above 1682.70.
- Look for this market to continue to fall and trade to 1609.50.
- Projected Daily Range: 23.40
- Projected Weekly Range: 57.90
- Projected Monthly Range: 128.30
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom on a range violation on 04/11/12 @ 1.3151. Confirmation of a bottom on a close violation 04/12/12 @ 1.3200. Upside Targets 1.3377 – 1.3560.
- C < LOHB. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1.3073. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1.3073 or lower.
- The June Euro broke sharply lower on Friday as it closed within one tick of its lowest daily close of the week.
- Look for the Euro to continue its fall lower and crack the 1.30 level as it sets its sights at 1.2895.
- Projected Daily Range: .0112
- Projected Weekly Range: .0241
- Projected Monthly Range: .0503
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom on 04/12/12 with a range violation @ 1381.00.Confirmation of a bottom on 04/12/12 with a close violation @ 1386.00. Upside Targets = 1401.25 – 1447.75.
- Bearish AOVB generated on Friday after making new highs for the week @ 1388.50.
- The June S&P’s reacted exactly as predicted in last Thursday’s report to end last week, trading through our weekly upside objective of 1388.00 before covering long positions and heading back lower.
- The S&P’s should take a dive at last week’s lows @ 1352.50 before being able to find any support a bit lower @ 1338.00.
- Projected Daily Range: 20.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 38.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 75.00
