Oil may break under $100 if Thursday’s low violated

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 04/16/12

Oil chart

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 122.29 on 04/05/12. Confirmation of a top on a close violation @ 125.43 on 04/02/12. Downside Targets = 120.81-118.83.
  • Inside VRCB generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 121.76. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 121.76 or higher.
  • June Brent Crude inched lower on Friday as most traders seemed to take a long weekend as volume dropped by over 30%.
  • With a violation below Friday’s low, Brent should head lower and possibly take out last week’s low @ 118.71 on its way towards our Q2 downside target of 115.12.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.93
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.30
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.90

CLM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 04/12/12 @ 103.14. Confirmation of a top with a close on 04/12/12 @ 103.64. Upside Targets = 105.29 – 106.21.
  • Inside VRCB generated Friday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 102.85. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 102.85 or lower.
  • June WTI Crude settled back lower on Friday as the short covering rally earlier in the week appeared to be over and WTI looks to head lower.
  • Once Thursday’s low is violated @ 102.85, look for WTI to try and break through $100 and trade down to 98.70.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.77
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.52
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.76

NGK12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/22/12 @ 2.392. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/22/12 @ 2.372. Downside Targets = 2.161 – 1.860
  • VRCB generated on Friday after making new contract lows @ 1.959. Downside Target over 84% achieved.
  • May Nat Gas settled down only two ticks Friday after generating a VRCB as the market appears to be trying to find a Short Term bottom.
  • IF Thursday’s high is broken at 2.070, look for Nat Gas to make a Short Term  run higher up to 2.235.
  • Projected Daily Range: .072
  • Projected Weekly Range: .173
  • Projected Monthly Range: .620

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