Gold selling may push prices below $1,600

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 04/12/12

METALS

GCM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom on 04/09/12 with a range violation @ 1649.60. Confirmation of a bottom on 04/10/12 with a close violation @ 1660.70. Upside Targets 1667.10 – 1699.10
  • Inside VRCB generated on Wednesday.
  • June Gold paused on Wednesday as the market had a tough time following through on Tuesday’s strong bull OVB because of the Short Term trend lines that are holding this market from cracking $1680.
  • Unless Gold can push higher and close above 1682.70, a range violation below Wednesday’s low @ 1653.50 should trigger another round of selling and push this market down below $1600 to $1594.70/oz.
  • Projected Daily Range: 19.30
  • Projected Weekly Range: 55.90
  • Projected Monthly Range: 128.30

CURRENCIES

ECM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom on a range violation on 04/11/12 @ 1.3151. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 04/03/12 @ 1.3220. Downside Target 1.3068 – 1.2968.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.3151. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.3151 or higher.
  • The Euro moved slightly higher on Wednesday but closed well off the day’s high as debt concerns still lingers over the currency’s strength.
  • If the Euro can close above Monday’s high @ 1.3140, this market should have no problem trading up to our initial upside objective of 1.3309.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0095
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0234
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0503

INDEXES

ESM12:  

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top on 04/04/12 with a range violation @ 1398.75. Confirmation of a top on 04/06/12 with a close violation @ 1390.25.
  • Inside day on Wednesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1381.00. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1381.00 or higher.
  • The June S&P’s recovered slightly on Wednesday yet failed to close back inside the daily Support Bollinger Band.
  • While the S&P’s may still show signs of technical weakness, look for this market to rebound soon and make a run for new weekly highs by Friday’s closing bell.
  • Projected Daily Range: 17.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 35.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 75.00
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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