Natural gas approaching $2.00, major bottom at $1.79

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 04/11/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNK12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 122.29 on 04/05/12. Confirmation of a top on a close violation @ 125.43 on 04/02/2012. Downside Targets = 120.81.
  • New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 119.49. Downside Target over 115% achieved
  • May Brent Crude closed below $120 for the first time since late February on Tuesday as well as closing below the daily SBB for the first time since mid-December.
  • Brent should continue to fall a bit lower to 116.48 before the market reaches a Short Term bottom and finds support at $115.12.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.03
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.61
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.90

CLK12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/22/12 @ 105.69. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/22/12 @ 105.35. Downside Target = 100.21.
  • Bearish OVB generated on Tuesday making new lows on current move @ 100.68.
  • May WTI Crude reversed course back lower on Tuesday as it made new eight-week lows before stopping just above the technical support level of $100.
  • If WTI cracks $100, it should find plenty of support at 98.98 and be able to hold the Q1 low of 95.44.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.31
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.74
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.76

NGK12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/22/12 @ 2.392. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/22/12 @ 2.372. Downside Targets = 2.161 – 1.860
  • Bearish OVB generated on Tuesday making new decade lows @ 2.024. Downside Target 75% achieved.
  • May Nat Gas broke lower on Tuesday as it enters the 16th day of the current Short Term downward move, stopping just shy of the $2.00 threshold specs have long believed it would crack.
  • Based on our analysis from the beginning of 2012, we believe that Nat Gas will find its Major-Term bottom @ 1.799 as shorts look to liquidate their positions after making fresh all-time lows.
  • Projected Daily Range: .078
  • Projected Weekly Range: .171
  • Projected Monthly Range: .620

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