Oil looking for psychological support, gold in technical bear trend

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 04/09/12

Oil support

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNK12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 122.29 on 04/05/12. Confirmation of a close violation @ 125.43 on 04/02/12. Downside Targets = 120.81-120.47
  • SHORT TERM TREND REVERSAL from bullish to bearish @ 122.29.
  • May Brent Crude continued its pattern of close reversals last Thursday as it bounced off the daily Support Bollinger Band to close back above $123.
  • This market continually finds support below $122 and until it can close below 121 on a daily level, look for a continued run of decreased volatility.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.03
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.61
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.90

CLK12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/22/12 @ 105.69. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/22/12 @ 105.35. Downside Target = 100.21 – 98.98
  • Inside day generated last Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom on a range violation @ 104.14. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 104.14 or higher.
  • May Crude caught a sizeable rally to end the holiday shortened week  in what appears to be a round of short-covering as the market traded mostly lower last week.
  • With upcoming psychological support at the $100 level, look for WTI to generate a $3-$5 pop after it trades to our downside objective of 100.21.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.22
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.74
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.76

NGK12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/22/12 @ 2.392. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/22/12 @ 2.372. Downside Targets = 1.988– 1.860
  • Inside compression day on Wednesday.
  • Nat Gas continued lower on Thursday as it logged its third consecutive week of declines.
  • After the initial pop at the beginning of last week seemed to offer a glimmer of hope to what few bulls are left in this market, gas turned back south as it heads for our major term objective of 1.799.
  • Projected Daily Range: .077
  • Projected Weekly Range: .171
  • Projected Monthly Range: .620

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