KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNK12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 124.65 and a close violation @ 125.43 on 04/02/12. Downside Targets = 120.81.
- Possible TREND REVERSAL to bearish @ 122.29. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 122.29. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 122.29 or lower.
- May Brent Crude reversed course on Wednesday and retreated lower, generating its lowest close in a month.
- Although Brent had a strong sell-off Wednesday, it is still important to note that it remained in the same trading range it has been stuck in over the last month as the market continues to remain range bound.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.76
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.13
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.90
CLK12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/22/12 @ 105.69. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/22/12 @ 105.35. Downside Target = 100.21.
- New 7 week lows generated on Wednesday @ 101.08. Downside Target over 140% achieved.
- May Crude fell hard on Wednesday on domestic supply increases to their highest levels in seven months.
- WTI remains the weak sister in the crude oil space but is nearing a level of Intermediate Term support as it reaches for our extended downside objective of 98.98. Spread between WTI & BRENT as of the close Tuesday $21.56.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.69
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.53
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.76
NGK12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/22/12 @ 2.392. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/22/12 @ 2.372. Downside Targets = 2.161 – 1.860.
- Inside compression day on Wednesday.
- Nat Gas generated its lowest close of the week on Wednesday as the short covering appears to be over and this market looks to break towards the next downside target of 1.989. WTI / NAT GAS Ratio 47:1.
- Projected Daily Range: .083
- Projected Weekly Range: .173
- Projected Monthly Range: .620
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top on 04/03/12 with a range violation @ 1646.60. Downside Targets 1612.80 – 1594.70
- New 3 month lows made on Wednesday @ 1613.00. Downside Target 80% achieved.
- June Gold continued its free-fall on Wednesday as is set new 12 week lows and closed below the daily Support Bollinger Band for the first time in a month.
- Gold may be able to receive an end-of-week bounce after losing more than $60 in the past two trading sessions but the Short Term and Intermediate Term outlook for the precious metal is still bearish with weekly objectives pointing all the way down to 1535.20-1528.10.
- Projected Daily Range: 33.30
- Projected Weekly Range: 59.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 128.30
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top on a range violation on 04/03/2012 @ 1.3256. Confirmation of a top on a close violation 04/03/12 @ 1.3220. Downside Target 1.3068 – 1.2968.
- New low made on current move Wednesday @ 1.3112. Downside Target 75% achieved.
- The euro moved lower on Wednesday as it followed the rest of the “risk” markets south, setting new three week lows as it looks to continue its decline to run the sell stops in the market below 1.2987.
- Projected Daily Range: .0131
- Projected Weekly Range: .0181
- Projected Monthly Range: .0503
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top on 04/04/12 with a range violation @ 1398.75. Confirmation of a top on 04/04/12 with a close violation @ 1393.25. Downside Target = 1378.00.
- TREND REVERSAL to bearish @ 1386.00.
- The June S&P’s broke sharply lower on Wednesday as the aftermath of the Fed cutting off its backstop on monetary supply sunk into investors today as the market headed for is largest decline in over a month.
- As mentioned in the weekend report, the S&P’s have seen volatility increase at the current elevated levels and the market is in dire need of a 5-7% correction before a healthy rally can ensue to push this market higher toward our yearly objective of 1512.00.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 31.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 75.00
