For 2012, U.S. farmers will be planting 95.9 million acres of corn, up 4% from 2011. All wheat acreage will be 55.9 million acres, up 3% from 2011. In soybeans, 73.9 million acres, down 1% from 2011. Special mention: Cotton acreage at 13.2 million acres, down 11% from 2011.
Last week’s price action in grains was very impressive, to say the least. May Corn opened at 646¼, closed Thursday at 604, and closed Friday at 644. And that’s on the “bearish” perspective plantings report. May Soybeans opened at 1365¾, closed on Thursday at 1355½, and closed Friday at 1403. Onward and upward to 1500? May wheat opened last week at 655½, Thursdays close was 612½, and Friday’s close was 660¾. Friday we saw a large spike up in OI in corn and soybeans. Now what about “big money”?
Proceed to Page 2 for the latest COT Data...
In last week’s COT Legacy report, we saw in corn Commercials go from -201,486 contracts net short to -153,503 contracts. This explains the weakness in corn Monday through Thursday last week. In soybeans, Commercials went from -167,002 contracts net short to -181.740 contracts net short, continuing their bullish posturing. In wheat Commercials went from 50,937 contracts net long to 53,156 contracts net long, actually supporting lower prices. You will find it very interesting to see what group is the only group net long wheat on the Disaggregated report on the weekly chart below.
In the coming weeks and months it will be very important for grain traders to see the USDA Crop Progress report released each Monday at 4:00PM ET. More importantly to see along with technicals how the report will affect grains for the rest of the week. So now planting starts, actual recognized acreage will be released Friday, June 29 by the USDA. Will corn be “knee-high by the Fourth of July?” To all of the farmers out there, have a great planting season.
If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the NEW COT report to your benefit get instant access to my new e-book "What Lies Beneath ALL Trends". It is filled with eye opening information.Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.
Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals...
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