Oil may see $99 if last week’s low taken out, gold to $1,587

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 04/02/12

METALS

GCM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top on 03/29/12 with a range violation @ 1656.10 and a close violation @ 1654.90. Downside Targets 1617.70 – 1587.40
  • C > HOLB + VRCB generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1672.80. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1672.80 or higher.
  • June Gold moved higher on Friday as sellers exited the market and Gold looks to make another run at cracking $1700/oz.
  • Beyond a few days of spikes and dips, Gold has been relatively complacent at the 1660 level so it will need to garner a lot of support early this week if it is going to make a serious case at another bullish move. Monday could be a flip to the upside with downside targets @ 1617.60-1587.30 in play.
  • Projected Daily Range: 20.90
  • Projected Weekly Range: 59.30
  • Projected Monthly Range: 128.30

CURRENCIES

ECM12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top on a range violation on 03/29/12 @ 1.3281. Confirmation of a bottom on a close violation 03/19/12 @ 1.3245. Upside Target 1.3380 – 1.3470.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.3384. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.3384 or higher.
  • The euro moved higher on Friday, leaving a daily close gap in the market from last Thursday back @ 1.3292 as the market moved back near the daily RBB.
  • We generally like to see closed gaps filled before the market continues on a move in the opposite direction so the upside remains a risky play in the short term.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0090
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0181
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0503

INDEXES

ESM12:  

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top on 03/29/12 with a range violation @ 1391.75. Downside Targets @ 1391.25 already achieved.
  • VRCB generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1406.50. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close at 1406.50 or higher.
  • The June S&P’s moved higher on Friday in very thin trading levels as the market looks to add to its best quarter in 14 years.
  • Once last week’s high is violated, look for the S&P’s to continue to move on higher towards 1438.50.
  • Projected Daily Range: 16.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 31.75
  • Projected Monthly Range: 75.00
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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