KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNK12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 123.09 and a close violation @ 122.39 on 03/29/2012. Downside Targets = 120.81.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom on a range violation @ 124.65. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 124.65 or higher.
- May Brent Crude was able to squeak out a marginal gain on Friday after generating an inside day and closing in the lower 20% of the daily range.
- Brent lost more than $5 last week and is due for a Short Term rally back above 125.47.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.14
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.13
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.90
CLK12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/22/12 @ 105.69. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/22/12 @ 105.35. Downside Target = 101.40 – 100.09
- Inside compression day last Friday.
- May Crude tried to catch its breath after free-falling on Thursday and was able to manage to eke out a small gain in thin trading on Friday.
- Look for WTI to move toward our downside targets and taking out last week’s low brings a longer term downside target @ 98.98.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.40
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.53
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.76
NGK12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/22/12 @ 2.392. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/22/12 @ 2.372. Downside Targets = 2.161 – 1.860
- New decade lows made on Friday @ 2.101. Downside Target 65% achieved.
- Nat Gas moved lower again on Friday as it set new decade lows and spent the entire day trading below the daily Support Bollinger Band.
- Nat Gas MAY receive a slight bounce as the market has traded lower for seven consecutive days now but any rally shouldn’t last very long as the market heads lower towards its Major-Term downside objective of 1.799.
- Projected Daily Range: .091
- Projected Weekly Range: .173
- Projected Monthly Range: .620
METALS
GCM12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top on 03/29/12 with a range violation @ 1656.10 and a close violation @ 1654.90. Downside Targets 1617.70 – 1587.40
- C > HOLB + VRCB generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1672.80. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1672.80 or higher.
- June Gold moved higher on Friday as sellers exited the market and Gold looks to make another run at cracking $1700/oz.
- Beyond a few days of spikes and dips, Gold has been relatively complacent at the 1660 level so it will need to garner a lot of support early this week if it is going to make a serious case at another bullish move. Monday could be a flip to the upside with downside targets @ 1617.60-1587.30 in play.
- Projected Daily Range: 20.90
- Projected Weekly Range: 59.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 128.30
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top on a range violation on 03/29/12 @ 1.3281. Confirmation of a bottom on a close violation 03/19/12 @ 1.3245. Upside Target 1.3380 – 1.3470.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.3384. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.3384 or higher.
- The euro moved higher on Friday, leaving a daily close gap in the market from last Thursday back @ 1.3292 as the market moved back near the daily RBB.
- We generally like to see closed gaps filled before the market continues on a move in the opposite direction so the upside remains a risky play in the short term.
- Projected Daily Range: .0090
- Projected Weekly Range: .0181
- Projected Monthly Range: .0503
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top on 03/29/12 with a range violation @ 1391.75. Downside Targets @ 1391.25 already achieved.
- VRCB generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1406.50. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close at 1406.50 or higher.
- The June S&P’s moved higher on Friday in very thin trading levels as the market looks to add to its best quarter in 14 years.
- Once last week’s high is violated, look for the S&P’s to continue to move on higher towards 1438.50.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 31.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 75.00
