Natural gas hits Q1 target of $2.16, major low targeted at $1.79

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 03/30/12

Nat Gas

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

BRNK12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation 0n 03/29/12 @ 123.09 and a close violation @ 122.39. Downside Targets = 120.81.
  • May Brent Crude finally broke down on Thursday as our reports earlier in the week indicated it would, making new 4 week lows in the process.
  • Having traded from Resistance Bollinger Band to Support Bollinger Band in a week’s time, Brent could still use a bit more of a correction however short position may look to cover profitable positions heading into the weekend.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.06
  • Projected Weekly Range: 6.17
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.51

CLK12:

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/22/12 @ 105.69. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/22/12 @ 105.35. Downside Target = 103.54.
  • New 7 week lows made on Thursday @ 102.13. Downside Target over 125% achieved.
  • May Crude finally broke lower on Thursday as continued talk of strategic reserve releases and high storage numbers gave the market a much needed break from current elevated levels.
  • While the market still needs another $3-$4 move lower, in our opinion anyways, WTI should rally on Friday as it follows Brent on some short covering after a $5 loss in the past two sessions.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.35
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.45
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.26

NGK12:

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/22/12 @ 2.392. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/22/12 @ 2.372. Downside Targets = 2.161 – 1.860
  • New decade lows made on Thursday @ 2.132. Downside Target 55% achieved.
  • Nat Gas hit our Q1 downside objective of 2.161 as a storage injection gave sellers new reason to continue to push the market lower.
  • Having achieved the Q1 target, the last downside number that remains in this market is 1.799 which is where we predict the market will make its final stand and put in its major-term bottom.
  • Projected Daily Range: .088
  • Projected Weekly Range: .222
  • Projected Monthly Range: .690

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