Oil subdued despite Bernanke sparking risk-on trading

I Fought the Fed REDUX

Here comes Ben with that big gun, I fought the Fed and the Fed won. I fought the Fed and the Fed Won. They needed money so they printed some, I fought the Fed and The Fed won, I fought and the Fed and the Fed won. I thought the data was a launching pad, thought the race was won. Well Ben says the jobs market is bad, I fought the Fed and the Fed won. I fought the Fed and the Fed won. Rates will stay down until the Fed is done, I fought the Fed and the Fed won. I fought the Fed and the Fed won.

Don’t fight the Fed and don’t fight Ben Bernanke. When he says rates are going to stay low until 2014 or 2015, you had better believe him. The Fed Chairman sent global commodity markets and stock markets soaring as he warned Fed fund futures traders and any other bond vigilante that wanted to listen, don’t get ahead of yourself. Instead of celebrating a slew of better than expected jobs reports, Ben seems to suggest that it is really smoke and mirrors. Oh sure, Ben said he was surprised at the data but he warned that it really does not seem to jive with the pace of the economic expansion. He seems to suggest that job growth is not normal, and we will need to see much stronger economic growth to see what he thinks is solid jobs growth.

So how does the Fed promote economic growth? Well folks it is easy! Easy money that is. Those that thought a QE 3d was off the table better get ready to put it back on. The printing presses are ready and waiting and full of ink.

That brought the risk-on trade back as precious metals, grains and copper enjoyed a nice ride, yet oil was subdued with hopes that we can still avoid a conflict with Iran. An AP report had traders readjusting their risk premium as it appears there is still a small chance that the world can negotiate our way out of the mess that Iran has put us in. The AP reported that Ira and six world powers have agreed to meet April 13 for a new try at finding common ground on Tehran's nuclear program. The United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China are involved in the talks, which are down to negotiating where the talks are going to take place. So in other words, an attack on Iran’s nuclear faculties should not happen before April 13 anyway.

About the Author
Phil Flynn

Senior energy analyst at The PRICE Futures Group and a Fox Business Network contributor. He is one of the world's leading market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets. His precise and timely forecasts have come to be in great demand by industry and media worldwide and his impressive career goes back almost three decades, gaining attention with his market calls and energetic personality as writer of The Energy Report. You can contact Phil by phone at (888) 264-5665 or by email at pflynn@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

 

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.


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