Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 03/26/12
KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNK12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 03/23/2012 @ 126.26. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 03/23/12 @ 126.17. Upside Targets = 133.55.
- May Brent Crude moved higher on Friday on a false report of Israeli military action against Iran but still settled above $125 for the first time since last Monday.
- Brent has seemed to stall over the last month at the current price levels and as the consolidation continues, technical indicators are beginning to signal that the market may be in need of a Short Term correction down to 119.04 in order to lure more buyers back into the market.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.32
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.17
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.51
CLK12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/22/12 @ 105.69. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/22/12 @ 105.35. Downside Target = 103.54.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 108.26. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 108.26 or higher.
- May Crude has been in the same trading pattern as Brent over the past five weeks but has been slowly working its way lower during this time span.
- The daily Bollinger Bands are contracted at their lowest levels in years and if last week’s high is violated, this market could explode higher to try and break through last year’s high @ 114.83.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.43
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.45
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.26
NGK12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/22/12 @ 2.392. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/22/12 @ 2.372. Downside Targets = 2.161 – 1.860
- Inside day generated last Friday. Possible TREND REVERSAL on a range violation from bearish to bullish @ 2.475. Possible TREND REVERSAL from bearish to bullish with a close @ 2.475 or higher.
- Nat Gas remained virtually unchanged on Friday and closed near its low for the day but was unable to follow through on Thursday’s bearish OVB.
- With Nat Gas trading at such depressed levels, it appears the shorts in this market seem to be less and less enthused about adding on to new positions to continue to push the market lower.
- Projected Daily Range: .085
- Projected Weekly Range: .222
- Projected Monthly Range: .690
METALS
GCJ12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top on 03/14/12 with a range violation @ 1663.30 and a close below. Downside Targets 1648.90-1612.20. Extreme Projected Downside 1566.10.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1666.40. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1666.40 or higher.
- April Gold moved higher on Friday to close up for the week for the first time in a month.
- As projected during last week’s reports, gold should have no problem trading back up through $1,700/oz. on this current move with an initial upside objective of $1,701.50.
- Projected Daily Range: 23.10
- Projected Weekly Range: 80.80
- Projected Monthly Range: 176.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom on a range violation on 03/19/12 @ 1.3196. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 03/19/12 @ 1.3245. Upside Target 1.3380 – 1.3470.
- New highs made on current move Friday @ 1.3300. Upside Target over 65% achieved.
- The euro reversed course Friday as it made new three week highs on its way to the initial upside objective of 1.3380.
- Projected Daily Range: .0111
- Projected Weekly Range: .0228
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top on 03/22/12 with a range violation @ 1391.50 and a confirmation of a top with a close @ 1389.00. Downside Target = 1378.00 – 1371.25.
- New low made on current move Friday @ 1380.50. Downside Target 95% achieved.
- The June S&P’s started the day in negative territory and was on pace for its largest weekly decline of 2012 before a strong rally throughout the daily pit session caught fire and pushed the market back higher to eradicate most of its weekly losses.
- The S&P’s seem hell-bent on pushing higher with no sign of a correction in sight.
- New Upside Objectives = 1426.75 – 1438.50.
- Projected Daily Range: 14.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 31.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.50
