Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 03/23/12
KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNK12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation and close below on 03/15/12 @ 124.63. Downside Targets = 120.81-119.63.
- May Brent Crude moved lower again on Thursday, making new lows for the week before finding some support just below last Friday’s low.
- Recent economic data abroad has led to lower settlements 3 out of the 4 trading days this week but overall the market has remained resilient as it has been in a consolidation period for the last month.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.74
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.17
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.51
CLK12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/22/12 @ 105.69. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/22/12 @ 105.35. Downside Target = 103.54.
- May Crude followed Brent lower today as it broke through the daily Support Bollinger Bands before bouncing off the lows to end the day just above $105.
- So far WTI avoided generating an OVB week but if, AND ONLY IF, this market cracks through last week’s low @ 104.29, look for an extended sell-off down to$98.98.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.29
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.45
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.26
NGK12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Bearish OVB generated on Thursday. Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 03/22/12 @ 2.392. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/22/12 @ 2.372. Downside Targets = 2.161 – 1.860
- Nat Gas broke lower on Thursday as there was a storage injection as well as a lack of interest from consumers as the market traded near $2.50.
- The technical point to this move as another downward leg that could eventually take this market below $2.00 for the first time since September 2001 @ 1.880 low.
- Projected Daily Range: .082
- Projected Weekly Range: .222
- Projected Monthly Range: .690
METALS
GCJ12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top on 03/14/12 with a range violation @ 1663.30 and a close below. Downside Targets 1648.90-1612.20. Extreme Projected Downside 1566.10.
- New lows made on Thursday for the current down move @ 1627.50. Initial Target over 90% achieved.
- April Gold broke lower overnight and throughout the early morning session as it followed the other risk markets lower before a second half-day rally occurred and the market closed just above its daily mid-range.
- The Parrish Hicks bias remains cautiously bullish at these levels but will need a strong Friday to confirm our bullish suspicions.
- Projected Daily Range: 22.80
- Projected Weekly Range: 80.80
- Projected Monthly Range: 176.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom on a range violation on 03/19/12 @ 1.3196. Confirmation of a bottom on a range violation 03/19/12 @ 1.3245. Upside Target 1.3380 – 1.3470.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1.3139. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1.3139 or lower.
- The Euro spent most of the day trading lower before catching a mid-day rally off its lows to settle just below the mid-range of the day.
- The Euro did however generate its lowest close of the week and has the possibility of generating a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern.
- More analysis on this formation will ensue upon signal confirmation.
- Projected Daily Range: .0103
- Projected Weekly Range: .0228
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top on 03/22/12 with a range violation @ 1391.50 and a confirmation of a top with a close @ 1389.00. Downside Target = 1378.00 – 1371.25.
- The June S&P’s generated new 7 trading day lows on Thursday as the stock market has continued to struggle above the 1400 level.
- This sell-off, rest assured, is to be short lived and we fully expect this market to resume its current upwards momentum after a brief correction.
- Projected Daily Range: 14.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 31.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.50
