Market Snapshot for session ending 3-20-12:
|
Last |
Day Change |
%Change |
|||
|
S&P 500 Index |
1405.52 |
-4.23 |
-.30% |
||
|
Dow Jones Industrials |
13170.19 |
-68.93 |
-.52% |
||
|
NASDAQ Composite |
3074.15 |
-4.17 |
-.14% |
||
|
Value Line Arithmetic Index |
3067.82 |
-22.91 |
-.74% |
||
|
Minor Cycle (Short-term trend lasting days to a few weeks) Positive |
Intermediate Cycle (Medium trend lasting weeks to several months) Positive |
Major Cycle (Long-term trend lasting several months to years) Positive / Neutral |
|||
Market Overview – What We Know:
- Major indexes succumbed to profit taking Tuesday with largest losses registered by Dow 30 and Value Line index.
- Short and Intermediate-term trends remain positive and “Overbought” with overheated readings now evident in Daily MAAD Ratio at 2.32.
- NYSE trading volume shrank a marginal 1.5% Tuesday with average share price fading 40 cents to $58.40. Highest recent valuation was last Thursday’s $61.48.
- Based on price, both Minor and Intermediate Cycles remain “Overbought.”
- Short-term Momentum has confirmed none of recent strength in any of major indexes to best bids for move. Nor has Intermediate Cycle Momentum.
- Cumulative Volume in S&P 500 and S&P Emini futures contract both rallied to new short to intermediate-term highs Tuesday, but has yet to overcome 2011 highs.
- Daily Most Actives (MAAD) rallied to new short to intermediate high Tuesday along with CPFL.
Market Overview – What We Think:
- Monday’s failure by Dow 30 to make new short to intermediate high with other indexes brought follow on weakness Tuesday and could be precursor to further weakness on Minor Cycle which looks vulnerable.
- Nonetheless, resumption of short to intermediate term strength in major indexes over past several sessions merely re-asserted intermediate-term uptrend begun after October 2011 lows.
- Failure of Momentum on both short and intermediate cycles could be sign recent bout of strength is abating. Fact that market is “Overbought” is helpful even though measurements are not definitive since “Overbought” readings can stay that way. It is reversals of those conditions that count, not the extreme conditions themselves.
- And while Cumulative Volume (CV) in S&P, Dow 30, and NASDAQ has improved via recent strength, failure in all to overcome major indicator resistance at 2011 highs underscores lack of participation since October, despite price gains.
|
ndex |
Daily / Weekly / Monthly Stops |
Weekly |
Monthly |
||||
| 3/19 | 3/20 | 3/21 | 3/22 | 3/23 | 3/23 | 3/31 | |
|
S&P 500 Index |
SELL1357.79 |
SELL1360.14 |
SELL1365.66 |
SELL1371.22 |
SELL1377.87 |
SELL1299.77 |
SELL1189.77 |
|
Dow Jones Industrials |
SELL12863.34 |
SELL12876.89 |
SELL12929.20 |
SELL12977.92 |
SELL13033.64 |
SELL12494.26 |
SELL11271.99 |
|
NASDAQ Composite |
SELL2950.94 |
SELL2958.93 |
SELL2971.50 |
SELL2985.32 |
SELL2999.78 |
SELL2766.84 |
SELL2517.37 |
|
Value Line Index |
SELL2962.87 |
SELL2968.54 |
SELL2980.64 |
SELL2992.47 |
SELL3008.95 |
SELL2845.49 |
SELL2612.10 |
Note: Stop levels, a function of the extant trend, are based on the trailing moving average price channels for the Highs or the Lows of an index. Whether or not a specific index is suggesting a “Buy” or Sell” is determined by whether or not index prices are above or below the current channel Stop levels. Stop levels should only be used as an entry or exit guide and in conjunction with other market entry and exit strategies.
Click charts to enlarge
Next page: Indicator review
We are also updating the daily chart of both the Call/Put Dollar Value Flow Line (CPFL) and Most Actives Advance/Decline Line (MAAD) indicators every day and providing the most recent raw data so you can begin to plot the indicators on your own (see below). The weekly equity index indicator summary provides longer-term commentary based on these indicators.
The definitions of the indicators along with links to the original stories provide helpful background. Also, Robert describes these indicators in a recent I-Trade show presentation available online.
Click charts to enlarge
|
MAAD Daily data for past 30 days* |
CPFL data for past 30 Days |
||||
|
Date |
NYSE Adv |
NYSE Dec |
Date |
OEX Call $Volume |
OEX Put $Volume |
|
2-7-12 |
10 |
9 |
2-7-12 |
51427 |
27147 |
|
2-8-12 |
15 |
5 |
2-8-12 |
40749 |
15883 |
|
2-9-12 |
8 |
11 |
2-9-12 |
25312 |
17956 |
|
2-10-12 |
3 |
17 |
2-10-12 |
38202 |
39263 |
|
2-13-12 |
16 |
2 |
2-13-12 |
45728 |
13705 |
|
2-14-12 |
5 |
14 |
2-14-12 |
53835 |
24968 |
|
2-15-12 |
4 |
15 |
2-15-12 |
25980 |
29720 |
|
2-16-12 |
19 |
1 |
2-16-12 |
55112 |
23062 |
|
2-17-12 |
10 |
9 |
2-17-12 |
42379 |
15373 |
|
2-21-12 |
10 |
10 |
2-21-12 |
18235 |
19137 |
|
2-22-12 |
2 |
18 |
2-22-12 |
16936 |
31595 |
|
2-23-12 |
14 |
6 |
2-23-12 |
16814 |
16610 |
|
2-24-12 |
13 |
6 |
2-24-12 |
21904 |
19290 |
|
2-27-12 |
15 |
5 |
2-27-12 |
28625 |
15156 |
|
2-28-12 |
15 |
4 |
2-28-12 |
13795 |
11355 |
|
2-29-12 |
3 |
17 |
2-29-12 |
32060 |
41398 |
|
3-1-12 |
14 |
5 |
3-1-12 |
25260 |
18375 |
|
3-2-12 |
9 |
11 |
3-2-12 |
10440 |
10093 |
|
3-5-12 |
4 |
16 |
3-5-12 |
22635 |
13196 |
|
3-6-12 |
1 |
19 |
3-6-12 |
28730 |
63236 |
|
3-7-12 |
18 |
2 |
3-7-12 |
16176 |
18992 |
|
3-8-12 |
15 |
5 |
3-8-12 |
32228 |
22865 |
|
3-9-12 |
14 |
5 |
3-9-12 |
45736 |
16176 |
|
3-12-12 |
8 |
12 |
3-12-12 |
31314 |
41969 |
|
3-13-12 |
18 |
2 |
3-13-12 |
116950 |
23343 |
|
3-14-12 |
11 |
9 |
3-14-12 |
56008 |
27023 |
|
3-15-12 |
18 |
2 |
3-15-12 |
46339 |
20392 |
|
3-16-12 |
10 |
10 |
3-16-12 |
102486 |
32711 |
|
3-19-12 |
15 |
5 |
3-19-12 |
38465 |
19655 |
|
3-20-12 |
12 |
8 |
3-20-12 |
26976 |
10919 |
*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.
