Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 03/21/12
KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNK12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation and close below on 03/15/12 @ 124.63. Downside Targets = 120.81-119.63.
- Inside set up day on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom on a range violation @ 126.17.
- May Brent reversed course on Tuesday as it headed south on concerns of slowing economic worries out of China.
- The outlook for Brent is still positive over the short term and would have close below $119.41 to reverse any intermediate trends.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.39
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.17
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.51
CLK12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 03/19/12 @ 107.86. Confirmation of a top with a close on 03/19/12 @ 108.56. Upside Target = 110.56 – 112.12.
- C < LOHB on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 105.69. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 105.69 or lower.
- May WTI gapped lower Tuesday and spent all day heading lower as it followed Brent on the poor economic data from China.
- WTI is following the same mosaic as Brent and the near term outlook remains positive unless this market breaks all the way through last week’s low @ 104.29.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.18
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.45
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.26
NGJ12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 03/14/12 @ 2.339. Upside Targets = 2.542. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 03/19/12 @ 2.351. Upside Target = 2.542.
- Inside VRCB generated Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 2.284. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 2.284 or lower.
- April Nat Gas traded mostly lower on Tuesday but within a very tight trading range after having found solid support over the last week.
- Nat Gas needs to move decidedly higher to making new weekly highs or it runs the risk of more shorts returning into the market and pushing it lower, possibly below $2.00.
- Projected Daily Range: .092
- Projected Weekly Range: .222
- Projected Monthly Range: .690
METALS
GCJ12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top on 03/14/12 with a range violation @ 1663.30 and a close below. Downside Targets 1648.90-1612.20. Extreme Projected Downside 1566.10.
- Working on 5th inside day. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1682.90. Possible confirmation of a bottom on a close @ 1682.90 or higher.
- April Gold broke lower today as demand was stifled based on the poor economic data out of China, one of the world’s largest consumers of the precious metal.
- Gold was able to find technical support and is possibly forming a bull flag for a push higher above $1700/oz.
- Projected Daily Range: 22.20
- Projected Weekly Range: 80.80
- Projected Monthly Range: 176.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom on a range violation on 03/19/12 @ 1.3196. Confirmation of a bottom on a range violation 03/19/12 @ 1.3245. Upside Target 1.3380 – 1.3470.
- Inside compression bar on Tuesday.
- The June Euro took a breather on Tuesday after three consecutive days of strong bullish price action, closing just a shade lower on the day.
- The Euro should have no problem making new highs for the week as it goes after our first initial upside target of 1.3380.
- Projected Daily Range: .0115
- Projected Weekly Range: .0228
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom on 03/08/12 with a range violation @ 1359.75 and a confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1360.50. Upside Target = 1420.25-1450.50.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1391.50. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1391.50 or lower.
- June S&P’s broke lower initially on the poor economic data from across the pacific but was able to rally throughout the rest of the day as positive sentiment from homebuilders buoyed the market.
- Look for new highs for the week to be made as the market chases down 1420.25.
- Projected Daily Range: 11.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 31.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.50
