Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 03/20/12
KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
BRNK12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation and close below on 03/15/12 @ 124.63 Downside Targets = 120.81-119.63.
- Inside VRCB generated today. Possible confirmation of bottom with a range violation @ 126.17. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 126.17 or higher. Upside Target = 133.01-133.28.
- May Brent started the week off in a holding pattern after a period of extreme volatility during the end of last week.
- Once last week’s high is violated, look for Brent to move toward new contract highs and chasing down an initial upside target of 129.11.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.77
- Projected Weekly Range: 6.17
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.51
CLK12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 03/19/12 @ 107.86. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 03/19/12 @ 108.56. Upside Target = 112.12 – 113.69
- May WTI made a strong move higher on Monday, closing at its highest level in nearly three weeks on positive homebuilder sentiment.
- WTI has completed a very strong technical pattern over the past three days, generating an OVB when compared to the prior nine trading sessions as this market looks to make a run not only to new contract highs but up to the 2011 highs @ 114.83.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.09
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.45
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.26
NGJ12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 03/14/12 @ 2.339. Upside Targets = 2.542. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 03/19/12 @ 2.351. Upside Target = 2.542.
- June Nat Gas closed at its highest level in nearly 2 weeks as the market has seemed to find the support at the levels we listed over a month ago @ 2.223.
- Gas may continue a short-term rally to our upside objective of $2.542 where the market should roll over for another decline.
- Projected Daily Range: .108
- Projected Weekly Range: .222
- Projected Monthly Range: .690
METALS
GCJ12:
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top on 03/14/12 with a range violation @ 1663.30 and a close below. Downside Targets 1648.90-1612.20. Extreme Downside Target 1566.10.
- VRCB generated Monday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1682.90. Possible confirmation of a bottom on a close @ 1682.90 or higher.
- April Gold tried to make a push higher on Monday but lacked any conviction on its way to generating a daily VRCB.
- If Gold is unable to close above Monday’s high, it may experience a slide further to go after our extended downside target of 1612.20.
- Projected Daily Range: 24.80
- Projected Weekly Range: 80.80
- Projected Monthly Range: 176.10
CURRENCIES
ECM12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 03/19/12 @ 1.3196. Confirmation of a bottom with a close on 03/19/12 @ 1.3245. Upside Target 1.3380 – 1.3472.
- The June euro moved higher again today, completing its third consecutive day of gains after recently reversing the short term trend from bearish to bullish.
- The euro should look to retest the 2012 highs on this current move higher before meeting any true resistance.
- Projected Daily Range: .0127
- Projected Weekly Range: .0228
- Projected Monthly Range: .0601
INDEXES
ESM12:
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom on 03/08/12 with a range violation @ 1359.75 and a confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1360.50. Upside Target = 1395.25-1450.50.
- Bullish VRCB-OVB combo generated today making new highs for the year @ 1408.00.
- June S&P’s continued to push higher to begin the week Monday, closing just under the daily RBB level yet above 1400 for the first time in over three years.
- Current price action dictates that this market should continue higher unless the daily close indicator reverses to bearish with a close below Monday’s low.
- Projected Daily Range: 11.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 31.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 73.50
